World Energy Outlook 2006

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(IGCC) technology is expected to become increasingly competitive after 2015, reaching 46% efficiency in 2015 and 51% by 2030. Overall, 144 GW of IGCC capacity is expected to be commissioned during the projection period, more than half of it in the United States. Figure 6.4: Incremental Coal-Fired Electricity Generation by Region in the Reference Scenario, 2004-2030 7% 14% 15% 6% 3% 7 785 TWh 55% China India Rest of developing Asia OECD North America Rest of OECD Rest of world Natural gas-fired electricity generation is expected to more than double between now and 2030. The projected increase in gas-fired generation is more equally distributed between regions than coal. High natural gas prices are now expected to constrain demand for new gas-fired generation, but gas-fired generation carries a number of advantages that make it attractive to investors, despite high fuel prices. Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) will be used to meet base- and mid-load demand and the bulk of peak-load demand will be met by simple-cycle gas turbines. Gas turbines will also be used in decentralised electricity generation. Fuel cells using hydrogen from reformed natural gas are expected to emerge as a new source of distributed power after 2020, producing 1% of total electricity output in 2030. 5 Higher natural gas prices in the second half of the projection period make coal-fired generation more attractive for new plants. Oil-fired electricity generation continues to lose market share, dropping from 7% of the world total in 2004 to just 3% by 2030. Oil continues to be used where gas is not available. The share of nuclear power in world electricity generation is projected to drop from 16% in 2004 to 10% in 2030, despite an increase in nuclear power 5. Power generation from fuel cells is included in gas-fired power generation. Chapter 6 - Power Sector Outlook 141 © OECD/IEA, 2007 6
generating capacity from 364 GW in 2004 to 416 GW in 2030. Most of this increase occurs in Asia, notably in China, Japan, India and the Republic of Korea. Hydropower output is projected to increase from 2 809 TWh in 2004 to 4 749 TWh by 2030, increasing at 2% year to year on average. The share of hydropower in total electricity generation continues its downward trend, falling from 16% to l4%. Only about 31% of the economic potential worldwide had been exploited by 2004. Most new hydropower capacity is added in developing countries, where the remaining potential is highest (Box 6.1). In the OECD, the best sites have already been exploited and environmental regulations constrain new development. Most of the increase in hydropower in the OECD occurs in Turkey and Canada. Some OECD countries provide incentives for small and mini hydropower projects. Box 6.1: Prospects for Hydropower in Developing Countries Over the past fifteen years, many large hydropower projects in developing countries have been adversely affected by concerns over the environmental and social effects of building large dams. Obtaining loans from international lending institutions and banks to finance such projects has become more difficult. Consequently, many projects have been delayed or cancelled. Five years ago, hydropower was the world’s second-largest source of electricity; now it ranks fourth. The remaining economic potential in developing countries is still very large (Figure 6.5). Several developing countries are focusing again on this domestic source of electricity, driven by a rapidly expanding demand for electricity, by the need to reduce poverty and to diversify the electricity mix. Support from international lenders and interest from the private sector is also growing. There is a strong consensus now that countries should follow an integrated approach in managing their water resources, planning hydropower development in cooperation with other water-using sectors. There is significant scope for optimising the current infrastructure. The majority of reservoirs have been developed for water supply, primarily irrigation. Only about 25% of reservoirs worldwide have any associated hydropower facilities (WEC, 2004). Properly managed, hydropower could help restrain the growth in emissions from burning fossil fuels. In Brazil, for example, where more than 80% of electricity is hydropower, the power sector accounts for just 10% of the country’s total CO 2 emissions, four times less than the world average. 142 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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Page 93 and 94: Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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Page 99 and 100: Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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Page 103 and 104: Investment Cumulative global invest
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Page 113 and 114: Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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Page 119 and 120: Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
Page 121 and 122: Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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Page 127 and 128: Demand Global coal use is projected
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Page 131 and 132: international demand. In contrast,
Page 133 and 134: Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
Page 135 and 136: Consolidation of the mining industr
Page 137 and 138: � Exchange rates: A drop in the v
Page 139 and 140: Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
Page 141: TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
Page 145 and 146: The share of non-hydro renewable so
Page 147 and 148: y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
Page 149 and 150: phase-out policies require 27 GW of
Page 151 and 152: illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
Page 153 and 154: Increasing interconnection capacity
Page 155 and 156: (in year-2005 dollars). These refor
Page 157 and 158: Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
Page 163 and 164: � Policies encouraging more effic
Page 165 and 166: the additional policies and technol
Page 167 and 168: fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
Page 169 and 170: Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
Page 171 and 172: Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
Page 173 and 174: lower cost than in the Reference Sc
Page 175 and 176: The reduction in the use of fossil
Page 177 and 178: global consumption of biomass is 58
Page 179 and 180: compared with 1.3% in the Reference
Page 181 and 182: production. For these reasons, we a
Page 183 and 184: mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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Page 187 and 188: Production and Trade As in the Refe
Page 189 and 190: in the long run (in particular main
Page 191 and 192: Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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