World Energy Outlook 2006

in developing countries contributes nearly two-thirds of global savings and
China alone for over one-third. OECD countries account for about onequarter
and transition economies for the rest. By 2030, savings relative to the
Reference Scenario are 6.5% in the OECD, 9.6% in developing regions and
10.5% in the transition economies.
Table 9.7: Change in Industrial Energy Consumption in the Alternative
Policy Scenario*, 2030
OECD Transition Developing World
economies countries
Change in industrial energy consumption (%)
Coal –8.2 –12.2 –18.7 –17.0
Oil –4.7 –11.5 –13.3 –9.1
Gas –7.6 –11.7 0.1 –4.8
Electricity –9.4 –8.3 –10.8 –10.0
Heat –4.9 –8.7 11.3 –0.5
Biomass and waste –0.3 – 12.6 7.2
Total –6.5 –10.5 –9.6 –8.6
Contribution to total change by fuel (Mtoe)
Coal –8 –5 –123 –136
Oil –20 –5 –58 –83
Gas –28 –15 0 –43
Electricity –33 –6 –56 –95
Heat –1 –4 5 –1
Biomass and waste 0 – 20 20
Total –91 –35 –211 –337
* Compared with the Reference Scenario.
In developing countries, a large part of the reduction of coal use by industry
results from the substitution by natural gas in China. In the Alternative Policy
Scenario, use of gas by industry in China is 61% higher than in the Reference
Scenario, while coal demand is 94 Mtoe lower. Industrial demand for oil in
developing countries falls by 13% in 2030, thanks to fuel switching and to
improvements in process heat and boiler efficiencies. In the Reference Scenario,
the share of gas in industrial energy use remains high in the transition
economies throughout the Outlook period. Efficiency improvements in their
industrial processes in the Alternative Policy Scenario yield large savings in gas
use, amounting to 12% of demand in the Reference Scenario in 2030 and
representing 43% of the total energy saved by the region’s industry. Biomass
and waste consumption increases in the Alternative Policy Scenario, with other
developing Asian countries accounting for over half the increase. There is
Chapter 9 - Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 235
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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