World Energy Outlook 2006

Figure 16.14: Power Generating Capacity in Brazil in the Reference Scenario
GW
200
150
100
50
0
2004 2015 2030
Gas
Hydro
Oil
Nuclear
Coal
Other renewables
able to participate. Supply contracts will be regulated. The second is an
unregulated market which will be used by independent power producers and
large consumers to negotiate bilateral contracts. The model also establishes
new rules for the award of contracts for new generation plants to bidders who
offer the lowest tariffs. The government is holding auctions for new
electricity generation projects, including small and large hydro and biomass
plants, with the aim of reducing power-supply risk and avoiding future
supply shortages.
Although generating costs are low, electricity is considered very expensive
for final consumers, particularly for households. Taxes and special charges to
cover the cost of extending electrification make up more than 40% of the
average electricity bill. The “Electricity for All” programme aims to give
access to electricity to all households by 2015. The cross-subsidies involved
in this programme increase tariffs for the non-subsidised population
by 10%.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, electricity generation is nearly 16% lower in
2030 than in the Reference Scenario and the fuel mix is different. There is
much less gas and oil, and coal-fired generation almost disappears. Non-hydro
renewables provide 49 TWh of generation, compared with 41 TWh in the
Reference Scenario. Most of this increase is from bagasse cogeneration, which
is boosted by more ethanol production in the Alternative Policy Scenario and
Chapter 16 - Focus on Brazil 483
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