World Energy Outlook 2006

As oil is the principal fuel in transport and transport CO 2 emissions are closely
linked to fuel consumption, emissions trends are broadly similar to the
consumption trends discussed above. Projected transport-related emissions in
2030 of 7.3 Gt represent a saving of 0.9 Gt compared with the Reference
Scenario. In 2015, the saving is 0.3 Gt. Slightly over half of these savings occur
in the OECD countries, 40% in developing countries and the rest in the
transition economies. The growth in transport emissions slows from 1.7% per
year in 2004-2030 in the Reference Scenario to 1.3% in the Alternative Policy
Scenario. This is driven by a halving of the growth rate in the OECD from 1%
to 0.5% per annum, a fall in the rate in developing countries from 3.2% to
2.7% and a fall in the transition economies from 1.5% to 1.1%.
Road Transport
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, road transport energy demand grows by
1.2% per year over the projection period, reaching 2 160 Mtoe in 2030. This
compares with an annual growth of 1.7% in the Reference Scenario and 2.4%
per year growth in the period 1990-2004. Road transport accounts for 77% of
transport demand in 2030, slightly decreasing from 80% in 2004. Road
transport demand in OECD countries increases at 0.4 % per annum over the
projection period, to 1 180 Mtoe. All OECD regions see demand level out
around 2015. Road transport growth is driven largely by the developing
countries, which grow to 893 Mtoe in 2030, a growth rate of 2.8% per annum.
The principal source of growth is China, which sees demand increase at 5.6%
per annum to reach 289 Mtoe in 2030, comparable to total current road
transport demand in the European Union. The largest savings potential in
going from the Reference Scenario to the Alternative Policy Scenario is in the
OECD countries, seeing savings of 140 Mtoe by 2030, over half of which
occurs in the United States and almost one-quarter in the European Union.
Developing countries achieve savings of 114 Mtoe by 2030, one-quarter of
which occurs in China (Fig. 9.9).
Policy Assumptions and Effects
These savings are achieved by policies that affect fuel type, new vehicle fuel
economy and modal shift. 3 Modal shift policies are limited to a few regions,
mainly the EU, Japan and China. Their impact on global fuel consumption
and emissions is much smaller than that of policies influencing fuel type and
fuel economy. 4
3. Vehicle ownership is assumed to remain unchanged in the Reference and Alternative Policy
Scenarios.
4. Policies whose effects are confined to a city or a local region are not quantifiable within the World
Energy Model framework.
224 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007