World Energy Outlook 2006

Prospects for Biofuels Production and Use
Summary of Projections to 2030
Demand for road-transport fuels is expected to increase strongly in the coming
decades, especially in developing regions. By 2030, global energy use in that
sector is expected to be 55% higher than in 2004 in the Reference Scenario and
38% higher in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Biofuels are expected to play an
increasingly important role in meeting transport demand, though the rates of
penetration differ substantially between the two main scenarios set out in this
Outlook (Table 14.2):
� In the Reference Scenario, total world production of biofuels is projected
to climb from 20 Mtoe in 2005 to 42 Mtoe in 2010, 54 Mtoe in 2015
Table 14.2: World Biofuels Consumption by Scenario (Mtoe)
2004 2010 2015 2030
RS APS RS APS RS APS
OECD 8.9 30.5 34.7 39.0 51.6 51.8 84.2
North America 7.0 15.4 17.4 20.5 28.8 24.2 45.7
United States 6.8 14.9 16.4 19.8 27.5 22.8 42.9
Canada 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.3 2.8
Europe 2.0 14.8 16.4 18.0 21.5 26.6 35.6
Pacific 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.4 1.0 2.9
Transition economies 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
Russia 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
Developing countries 6.5 10.9 14.0 15.3 21.1 40.4 62.0
Developing Asia 0.0 1.9 4.6 3.7 8.5 16.1 32.8
China 0.0 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.7 7.9 13.0
India 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.4 4.5
Indonesia 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.3
Middle East 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6
Africa 0.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 3.4 3.5
North Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5
Latin America 6.4 8.4 8.6 10.4 11.2 20.3 25.1
Brazil 6.4 8.3 8.6 10.4 11.0 20.3 23.0
World 15.5 41.5 48.8 54.4 73.0 92.4 146.7
European Union 2.0 14.8 16.4 18.0 21.5 26.6 35.6
Note: RS = Reference Scenario; APS = Alternative Policy Scenario.
394 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS