World Energy Outlook 2006

Table 1.2: World Real GDP Growth (average annual growth rates, %)
1980- 1990- 2004- 2015- 2004-
1990 2004 2015 2030 2030
OECD 3.0 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.2
North America 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.0 2.4
United States 3.2 3.0 2.9 1.9 2.3
Europe 2.4 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.0
Pacific 4.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.9
Japan 3.9 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4
Transition economies –0.5 –0.8 4.4 2.9 3.6
Russia – –0.9 4.2 2.9 3.4
Developing countries 3.9 5.7 5.8 3.9 4.7
Developing Asia 6.6 7.3 6.4 4.1 5.1
China 9.1 10.1 7.3 4.3 5.5
India 6.0 5.7 6.4 4.2 5.1
Middle East –0.4 3.9 5.0 3.2 4.0
Africa 2.1 2.8 4.4 3.6 3.9
Latin America 1.3 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.2
Brazil 1.5 2.6 3.3 2.8 3.0
World 2.9 3.4 4.0 2.9 3.4
European Union 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0
grow more quickly in the transition economies and developing countries than
in the OECD (Figure 1.2). Yet incomes in OECD countries, which increase by
57% to $44 720 in 2030, are still almost four times the average for the rest of
the world.
Energy Prices
As with any good, the price of an energy service (reflecting the price of the fuel
used to provide it) affects how much of it is demanded. The price elasticity of
demand varies across fuels and sectors, and over time, depending on a host of
factors, including the scope for substituting the fuel with another or adopting
more efficient energy-using equipment, the need for the energy service and the
pace of technological change. Primary energy sources are traded on
international markets and their prices are influenced by market forces, even
where those markets are not entirely free. Where retail prices are not directly
Chapter 1 - Key Assumptions 59
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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