World Energy Outlook 2006

As in the Reference Scenario, China overtakes the United States as the single
largest CO 2 emitter before 2010. By 2030, its emissions reach 8.8 Gt or half of
total developing-country emissions. At 2.5% and 2.3% per year respectively,
Indonesia and India have the fastest rate of emissions growth of all regions. The
increase in emissions in the transition economies is much slower, peaking at
2.9 Gt around 2020 and then stabilising at 2.8 Gt in 2030.
Figure 7.11: Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region in the Alternative Policy Scenario
Gt of CO 2
20
16
12
8
4
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
Figure 7.12: Change in Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region
in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2004-2030
United States
European Union
Japan
Rest of OECD
Transition economies
China
India
Rest of developing Asia
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
– 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Reference Scenario
Gt of CO 2
Alternative Policy Scenario
Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 189
7
© OECD/IEA, 2007