World Energy Outlook 2006

1 000
500
0
–500
–1 000
–1 500
–2 000
Fuel Bills in the Alternative Policy Scenario*, 2005-2030
OECD Non-OECD
billion dollars (2005) Figure 8.8: Change in End-Use Investment in Transport and Consumers’
* Compared with the Reference Scenario.
Aviation investment LDV investment
Other transport investment Reduction in fuel bill
Box 8.5: Increasing Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency
Using current technologies to improve the fuel economy of light-duty
vehicles rather than to increase power and size could lead to significant fuel
savings – and could be achieved with little if any cost penalty. In the United
States and Canada, assuming a fuel economy improvement of 32% by 2030
compared to today, the payback period for a consumer buying a new vehicle
and driving it about 10 000 km per year would be between one and six years
(depending on the technology used). The shorter payback occurs when all
the technology improvements are devoted to fuel economy improvements;
the longer period would be required where the initially higher capital cost
of introducing hybrids has to be covered.
In the European Union, using the same assumptions for vehicle use and
applying a fuel economy improvement of 35% by 2030, the payback period
would range between one and four years. The European Union’s shorter
payback compared to that in the United States is due to higher end-use fuel
prices in the European Union. In Japan, payback periods are typically
longer, since relatively low-cost technological options to improve fuel
economy have already been adopted.
Chapter 8 - Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Policies 209
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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