World Energy Outlook 2006

Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific
Electricity generation (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total generation 1 130 1 719 2 104 2 353 100 100 100 1.9 1.2
Coal 253 630 746 738 37 35 31 1.6 0.6
Oil 274 164 140 72 10 7 3 –1.4 –3.1
Gas 198 340 414 510 20 20 22 1.8 1.6
Nuclear 255 413 594 751 24 28 32 3.4 2.3
Hydro 133 142 146 155 8 7 7 0.3 0.4
Renewables (excluding hydro) 17 30 63 127 2 3 5 7.1 5.8
Biomass and waste 13 21 31 48 1 1 2 3.7 3.2
Wind 0 2 14 42 0 1 2 17.6 11.6
Geothermal 4 6 10 15 0 0 1 4.5 3.5
Solar 0 0 7 22 0 0 1 45.1 22.0
Tide and wave 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 – –
Capacity (GW) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total capacity 386 443 518 100 100 100 1.3 1.1
Coal 94 113 123 24 25 24 1.6 1.0
Oil 69 61 40 18 14 8 –1.2 –2.0
Gas 89 111 153 23 25 30 2.0 2.1
Nuclear 61 74 94 16 17 18 1.7 1.7
Hydro 65 68 71 17 15 14 0.4 0.3
of which pumped storage 28 28 28 7 6 6 0.0 0.0
Renewables (excluding hydro) 7 16 37 2 4 7 8.5 6.8
Biomass and waste 3 5 8 1 1 1 4.9 3.7
Wind 2 5 13 0 1 3 11.1 8.6
Geothermal 1 1 2 0 0 0 4.0 3.2
Solar 1 5 14 0 1 3 13.8 9.8
Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 0 0 – –
CO2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 1 564 2 055 2 295 2 316 100 100 100 1.0 0.5
Coal 519 803 897 858 39 39 37 1.0 0.3
Oil 885 960 1 028 1 025 47 45 44 0.6 0.3
Gas
Power generation
160 292 369 433 14 16 19 2.2 1.5
and heat plants 538 847 960 923 100 100 100 1.1 0.3
Coal 276 596 683 647 70 71 70 1.2 0.3
Oil 167 94 81 42 11 8 5 –1.3 –3.0
Gas 94 157 195 234 19 20 25 2.0 1.5
Total final consumption 957 1 118 1 242 1 298 100 100 100 1.0 0.6
Coal 219 174 181 179 16 15 14 0.4 0.1
Oil 679 817 895 930 73 72 72 0.8 0.5
of which transport 320 440 502 540 39 40 42 1.2 0.8
Gas 60 126 165 189 11 13 15 2.5 1.6
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 501
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A