World Energy Outlook 2006

Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future
CHAPTER 7
MAPPING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE
HIGHLIGHTS
� The Alternative Policy Scenario analyses how the global energy market
could evolve if countries were to adopt all of the policies they are
currently considering related to energy security and energy-related CO2 emissions. The aim is to understand how far those policies could take us
in dealing with these challenges and at what cost.
� These policies include efforts to improve efficiency in energy production
and use, increase reliance on non-fossil fuels and sustain the domestic
supply of oil and gas within net energy-importing countries. They yield
substantial savings in energy consumption and imports compared with
the Reference Scenario. They thereby enhance energy security and help
mitigate damaging environmental effects. Those benefits are achieved at
lower total investment cost than in the Reference Scenario.
� World primary energy demand in 2030 is about 10%, or 1 690 Mtoe,
lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario than in the Reference Scenario
– roughly equivalent to China’s entire energy consumption today. The
impact of new policies is felt throughout the period; already in 2015, the
difference between the two scenarios is 4%, or 534 Mtoe.
� The policies analysed halt the rise in OECD oil imports by 2015.
OECD countries and developing Asia become more dependent on oil
imports in 2030 compared to today, but markedly less so than in the
Reference Scenario. Global oil demand reaches 103 mb/d in 2030 in the
Alternative Policy Scenario – an increase of 20 mb/d on 2005 levels but
a fall of 13 mb/d compared with the Reference Scenario. Globally, gas
demand and reliance on gas imports are also reduced below the levels of
the Reference Scenario.
� Energy-related CO2 emissions are cut by 6.3 Gt, or 16%, in 2030 relative
to the Reference Scenario and already 1.7 Gt, or 5%, by 2015. OECD
emissions peak by around 2015 and then decline. Emissions in Japan and
the European Union in 2030 are lower than 2004 levels. Global
emissions nonetheless continue to rise, from 26 Gt in 2004 to 32 Gt in
2015 and 34 Gt in 2030.
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© OECD/IEA, 2007