World Energy Outlook 2006

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Box 2.3: Will Signatories to the Kyoto Protocol Respect their Greenhouse-Gas Emission-Limitation Commitments? The energy-related CO 2 emissions projected in the Reference Scenario give an indication of how likely it is that those countries that have agreed to limit their emissions, known as Annex I countries, under the Kyoto Protocol will meet their commitments. The Kyoto Protocol, which came into effect on 16 February 2005, sets binding targets for developed countries to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. The Protocol covers six types of emissions and the contribution of sinks (vegetation that absorbs carbon dioxide). Although our projections reflect only energy-related CO 2 emissions, these account for the bulk of greenhouse-gas emissions. Our analysis suggests that, if total greenhouse-gas emissions rise at the same rate as energy-related emissions, Annex I countries in aggregate would not be able to meet the overall emissions-reduction target on current trends. In 2010, the total emissions of Annex I OECD countries are projected to be 29% above the target. Excluding the United States and Australia, which have not ratified the Protocol, the gap would be 19%. The emissions of Annex I transition economies are projected to be 22% below target. This would not be enough to make up all of the gap in all Annex I OECD countries, even if the United States and Australia are not included. Even if Annex I countries were to adopt a new set of policies and measures, they would be unlikely to significantly affect emission trends before 2010 – a key message that emerges from the Alternative Policy Scenario (see Part B). The recent surge in emissions makes it even less likely that the targets will be met: global emissions rose at a much faster rate in the four years to 2004 than they did in the 1990s (Figure 2.7). The Kyoto Protocol was always intended to be a first step. There is little that governments can do today that will have any significant effect on emissions before 2010. The challenge now is to forge an international framework that engages all major emitting countries in an effective longterm effort to mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions (IEA, 2005b). In May 2005, parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change convened a seminar of government experts to discuss possible future efforts, but explicitly did not open negotiations on new commitments. In July 2005, at the Gleneagles Summit, G8 leaders pledged to introduce innovative measures to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions as part of an agreed long-term plan. This pledge was reaffirmed at the 2006 St Petersburg Summit. Chapter 2 - Global Energy Trends 79 © OECD/IEA, 2007 2
China United States Middle East India OECD Pacific Latin America Indonesia European Union Canada Rest of world Table 2.4: World Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Sector in the Reference Scenario (million tonnes) 1990 2004 2010 2015 2030 2004- 2030* Power generation 6 955 10 587 12 818 14 209 17 680 2.0% Industry 4 474 4 742 5 679 6 213 7 255 1.6% Transport 3 885 5 289 5 900 6 543 8 246 1.7% Residential and services** 3 353 3 297 3 573 3 815 4 298 1.0% Other*** 1 796 2 165 2 396 2 552 2 942 1.2% Total 20 463 26 079 30 367 33 333 40 420 1.7% *Average annual growth rate. **Includes agriculture and public sector. ***Includes international marine bunkers, other transformation and non-energy use. Figure 2.7: Increase in Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region –800 –400 0 400 800 1 200 1 600 million tonnes 1990-2000 2000-2004 2 000 2 400 2 800 Coal recently overtook oil as the leading contributor to global energy-related CO 2 emissions and, in the Reference Scenario, consolidates this position through to 2030 (Figure 2.8). Coal’s share of emissions increases slightly, from 41% today to 43%. The share of natural gas also increases, from 20% to 22%, while that of oil falls, from 39% to 35%. Gas-related emissions increase most rapidly, by two-thirds between 2004 and 2030. 80 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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Page 51 and 52: would be needed (over and above tho
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Page 67 and 68: Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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Page 73 and 74: Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
Page 75 and 76: Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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Page 79: Exploration and development Explora
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Page 87 and 88: Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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Page 93 and 94: Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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Page 103 and 104: Investment Cumulative global invest
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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