World Energy Outlook 2006

Figure 6.2: Average Annual Growth in Electricity Demand by Region
in the Reference Scenario
World
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD North America
Russia
Brazil
Middle East
Africa
Developing countries
China
India
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Power Generation Outlook
average annual growth rate
2004-2015 2004-2030
World electricity generation 2 almost doubles, from 17 408 TWh in 2004 to
33 750 TWh in 2030, in the Reference Scenario. The share of coal-fired
generation in total generation increases from 40% now to 44% in 2030,
while the share of gas-fired generation grows from 20% to 23%. Non-hydro
renewable energy sources – biomass, wind, solar, geothermal, wave and tidal
energy – continue to increase their market share, accounting for almost 7%
of the total in 2030, up from 2% now. Oil use in power generation continues
to shrink: its share in electricity generation drops to 3% by 2030. Hydropower
accounts for a smaller share in 2030 than now. Nuclear power suffers the largest
fall in market share, dropping from 16% in 2004 to 10% in 2030
(Figure 6.3). 3 Compared with the projections in previous Outlooks, the share of
gas in 2030 is lower, while the shares of coal, nuclear and renewables are
projected to be higher.
2. Electricity generation includes final demand, network losses and own use of electricity at
power plants.
3. See also Chapter 13 for an analysis of nuclear power.
Chapter 6 - Power Sector Outlook 139
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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