World Energy Outlook 2006

in the Alternative Policy Scenario and 3% in the Reference Scenario. In this
case, land requirements are only 0.4 percentage points higher than in the
Alternative Policy Scenario. This is because a significant share of the additional
biomass needed could come from regenerated and marginal land not currently
used for crops or pasture, as well as from agricultural and forest residues and
waste. In addition, the conversion efficiency of second-generation technologies
is expected to be considerably higher.
Table 14.7: Land Requirements for Biofuels Production
2004 2030 2030 2030
Reference Alternative Second-
Scenario Policy Generation
Scenario Biofuels
Case
Million % Million % Million % Million %
ha arable ha arable ha arable ha arable
United States and Canada 8.4 1.9 12.0 5.4 20.4 9.2 22.6 10.2
European Union 2.6 1.2 12.6 11.6 15.7 14.5 17.1 15.7
OECD Pacific neg. neg. 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.1 1.0 2.0
Transition economies neg. neg. 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Developing Asia neg. neg. 5.0 1.2 10.2 2.5 11.5 2.8
Latin America 2.7 0.9 3.5 2.4 4.3 2.9 5.0 3.4
Africa & Middle East neg. neg. 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.1 0.4
World 13.8 1.0 34.5 2.5 52.8 3.8 58.5 4.2
Note: neg. = negligible. In the Second-Generation Biofuels Case, some biomass for biofuels production comes
from non-arable land and residues, reducing arable land requirements.
Sources: Farm land – Food and Agriculture Organization website, online database: www.fao.org; land
requirements – IEA analysis.
International Trade in Biofuels
Current trade in biofuels and biomass feedstock is modest compared to total
biomass energy production, but it is growing rapidly. Most trade is between
neighbouring regions or countries, but long-distance trade – especially in
finished biofuels – is becoming more important. Brazil dominates trade in
ethanol, exporting to Japan, the European Union, the United States and
416 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS