World Energy Outlook 2006

Demand
Primary Energy Mix
Global primary energy demand1 in the Reference Scenario is projected to
increase by 1.6% per year between 2004 and 2030, reaching 17.1 billion
tonnes of oil equivalent (Table 2.1). The increase in demand amounts to
almost 6 billion toe, or 53% of current demand. The average projected rate of
growth is, nevertheless, slower than that over the period 1980-2004, when
demand grew by 1.8% per year. The pace of demand growth slackens
progressively over the projection period: in the period 2004-2015, it grows by
2.1%. By 2015, total global energy demand is one-quarter higher than in
2004. The rate of growth drops to 1.3% in 2015-2030.
Table 2.1: World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario
(Mtoe)
1980 2004 2010 2015 2030 2004 -
2030*
Coal 1 785 2 773 3 354 3 666 4 441 1.8%
Oil 3 107 3 940 4 366 4 750 5 575 1.3%
Gas 1 237 2 302 2 686 3 017 3 869 2.0%
Nuclear 186 714 775 810 861 0.7%
Hydro 148 242 280 317 408 2.0%
Biomass and waste 765 1 176 1 283 1 375 1 645 1.3%
Other renewables 33 57 99 136 296 6.6%
Total 7 261 11 204 12 842 14 071 17 095 1.6%
* Average annual growth rate.
Fossil fuels are projected to remain the dominant sources of primary energy
globally. They account for close to 83% of the overall increase in energy demand
between 2004 and 2030. Their share of world demand edges up from 80% in
2004 to 81% in 2030. Coal sees the biggest increase in demand in volume terms
in 2004-2030, closely followed by oil (Figure 2.1). In WEO-2005, oil and gas
1. World total primary energy demand, which is equivalent to total primary energy supply, includes
international marine bunkers, which are excluded from the regional totals. Primary energy refers to
energy in its initial form, after production or importation. Some energy is transformed, mainly in
refineries, power stations and heat plants. Final consumption refers to consumption in end-use
sectors, net of losses in transformation and distribution. In all regions, total primary and final
demand includes traditional biomass and waste such as fuel wood, charcoal, dung and crop residues,
some of which are not traded commercially.
66 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007