World Energy Outlook 2006

Plant retirements are expected to increase, but the extent is uncertain, as power
companies do not have to report their retirements to the network operators
long in advance. The ETS, together with the EU’s Large Combustion Plant
Directive (which requires power plants over 50 MW to comply with emission
limit values for sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulates), may make
some power plants uneconomical – particularly older coal-fired power stations
– forcing early retirement. On the assumption that Belgium, Germany and
Sweden proceed with their nuclear phase-out policies, nuclear power plant
retirements in these countries amount to 13 GW in the period 2005-2015 in
the Reference Scenario.
CENTREL
Baltic countries
Portugal
and Spain
Italy
France and
Germany
NORDEL
Great Britain
South Eastern
UCTE
Belgium and
the Netherlands
Ireland
Figure 6.12: European Generation Margins
–20% –10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
2010 2015
Notes: Only projects under construction or planned, but with a high degree of certainty that they will be
built, are included. Data are for winter peak load. UCTE is the association of transmission system operators
(TSOs) in continental Europe. CENTREL is the association of TSOs of the Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland and Slovakia. NORDEL is the association of TSOs in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Iceland,
Finland, Norway and Sweden).
Sources: ETSO (2006) and UCTE (2005).
Growth in high-voltage transmission lines has been slow in a number of
countries, though power companies in some, including the United Kingdom
and Germany, have recently announced that they plan to increase spending on
networks. Since peak demand does not occur simultaneously in all countries,
interconnections can contribute to system security and lower overall costs.
Chapter 6 - Power Sector Outlook 151
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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