World Energy Outlook 2006

Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Production in the Reference Scenario (mb/d)
2004 2015 2030
Currently producing fields 1.5 2.7 2.0
Fields awaiting development 0.0 0.4 0.7
Reserve additions and new discoveries 0.0 0.0 1.0
Total 1.5 3.1 3.7
Source: IEA analysis.
mb/d
2
1
0
– 1
4 80%
3
Figure 16.9: Brazil’s Oil Balance in the Reference Scenario
60%
40%
20%
– 2
– 40%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Production Demand
Net imports as % of demand (right axis)
468 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS
0%
– 20%
To maintain self-sufficiency, Brazil needs to continue to invest heavily in
exploration, as today it is producing the oil that was discovered in the 1980s
and 1990s. Petrobras has set itself a new target of domestic oil and gas
production of 2.9 mb/d by 2011, with planned investments in exploration and
production of $41 billion. Production is expected to focus increasingly on
deep-water fields (Box 16.2). Maintaining self-sufficiency beyond 2012-2014
will require major new discoveries. The IEA has undertaken a field-by-field
analysis of oil production in Brazil, which has been used to project production
by source over the Outlook period (Figure 16.10).