World Energy Outlook 2006

Reference Scenario: Transition Economies
Electricity generation (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total generation 1 840 1 536 1 882 2 281 100 100 100 1.9 1.5
Coal 501 322 401 332 21 21 15 2.0 0.1
Oil 252 54 43 28 4 2 1 –2.0 –2.5
Gas 586 575 766 1 056 37 41 46 2.6 2.4
Nuclear 231 279 312 399 18 17 18 1.0 1.4
Hydro 269 303 342 403 20 18 18 1.1 1.1
Renewables (excluding hydro) 0 3 19 62 0 1 3 17.9 12.3
Biomass and waste 0 2 3 23 0 0 1 2.9 9.7
Wind 0 0 11 28 0 1 1 53.9 24.5
Geothermal 0 0 5 11 0 0 0 25.3 13.5
Solar 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 –13.3 1.1
Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 – –
Capacity (GW) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total capacity 405 456 555 100 100 100 1.1 1.2
Coal 109 99 87 27 22 16 –0.9 –0.9
Oil 30 28 15 7 6 3 –0.6 –2.5
Gas 137 183 268 34 40 48 2.7 2.6
Nuclear 40 42 54 10 9 10 0.3 1.1
Hydro 88 100 116 22 22 21 1.1 1.0
of which pumped storage 0 0 0 0 0 0 – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 1 5 15 0 1 3 20.4 12.9
Biomass and waste 0 1 4 0 0 1 3.1 8.5
Wind 0 4 9 0 1 2 34.8 17.7
Geothermal 0 1 2 0 0 0 24.2 13.2
Solar 0 0 1 0 0 0 49.5 27.3
Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 0 0 – –
CO2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 3 731 2 560 2 977 3 193 100 100 100 1.4 0.9
Coal 1 109 783 890 782 31 30 25 1.2 0.0
Oil 1 230 573 663 735 22 22 23 1.3 1.0
Gas
Power generation
1 392 1 204 1 425 1 675 47 48 52 1.5 1.3
and heat plants 1 515 1 287 1 440 1 412 100 100 100 1.0 0.4
Coal 690 557 622 488 43 43 35 1.0 –0.5
Oil 263 90 75 54 7 5 4 –1.6 –2.0
Gas 562 641 743 871 50 52 62 1.3 1.2
Total final consumption 2 015 1 169 1 412 1 625 100 100 100 1.7 1.3
Coal 416 224 264 291 19 19 18 1.5 1.0
Oil 908 427 517 591 37 37 36 1.8 1.3
of which transport 330 232 296 343 20 21 21 2.2 1.5
Gas 691 518 630 743 44 45 46 1.8 1.4
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 509
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A