World Energy Outlook 2006

The broad categories of policy mentioned above underlie the on-road fuel
economy assumptions for new light-duty vehicle sales in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios in Table 9.5. In the Reference Scenario, there is a
relatively stable trend for fuel economy improvements, assuming that a
consistent fraction of all technological advances would be used to increase
vehicle power, size and comfort, while a limited amount of this potential would
be dedicated to fuel economy. Some targets, such as those in the voluntary
agreement in the European Union, are not met in the Reference Scenario. On
the other hand, in the Alternative Policy Scenario the targets set by government
authorities or included in the voluntary agreements between governments and
manufacturers are assumed to be met, and further fuel economy improvements
are taken into account after the existing commitment periods. However, a small
part of the gains from these improvements is lost to the rebound effect, where
improved fuel economy leads to lower driving costs, so encouraging increased
vehicle usage and longer journeys.
Table 9.5: Average On-Road Vehicle Fuel Efficiency for New Light-Duty
Vehicles in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios (litres per 100 km)
Reference Scenario Alternative Policy
2004 2030 Scenario - 2030
OECD 9.3 8.3 6.2
North America 11.6 11.3 7.8
Europe 7.7 6.1 5.1
Pacific 8.6 6.9 5.7
Transition economies 10.0 9.0 7.0
Developing countries 10.3 9.1 7.1
China 11.3 9.0 7.5
India 10.1 8.9 7.1
Brazil 9.1 8.5 6.2
Implications for Light-Duty Vehicles Sales and Technology
The number of light-duty vehicles in use worldwide is expected to double over
the projection period, from 650 million in 2005 to 1.4 billion in 2030.
Increasing income per capita boosts global light-duty vehicle ownership from
100 light-duty vehicles per 1 000 persons today to 170 in 2030 in both
scenarios. We do not include in the Alternative Policy Scenario policies that
will alter vehicle ownership per capita, but only – as already said – those which
affect vehicle fuel consumption and vehicle use. The typical lifetime of a lightduty
vehicle is some 10 to 15 years in a developed country and somewhat
longer in developing countries. As a result, many light-duty vehicles in use
228 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007