World Energy Outlook 2006

Development Mechanism (CDM), to promote the development of energy
sources that would lower carbon emissions. There were 66 CDM projects
registered in Brazil as of September 2006. 12
Mt of CO 2
Figure 16.15: Brazil’s Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario
In the Reference Scenario, energy-related CO 2 emissions are projected to reach
551 million tonnes by 2030, up from 323 million tonnes in 2004 and nearly
three times higher than their 1990 level. Transport continues to contribute
most to total emissions, its share increasing slightly from 42% today to 45% in
2030. The industrial sector’s share of emissions remains flat. Those from power
generation will decline slightly.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, total CO 2 emissions reach 458 Mt in 2030,
considerably lower than in the Reference Scenario (Figure 16.15). The decline is
due to greater energy efficiency, more nuclear and renewables-based generation
and more biofuels for transport. Emissions of CO 2 per unit of energy consumed
are lower than in 2004. From a share today of 40% of primary energy use, the
share of renewables remains flat in the Reference Scenario but rises by two
percentage points in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
12. www.unfccc.int, accessed on 10 September 2006.
Chapter 16 - Focus on Brazil 485
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