World Energy Outlook 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD
Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total generation 7 571 10 118 11 728 12 895 1.4 0.9 –3.7 –10.9
Coal 3 059 3 842 4 265 3 803 1.0 0.0 –6.2 –29.5
Oil 695 527 456 257 –1.3 –2.7 –5.3 –13.4
Gas 770 1 854 2 213 2 614 1.6 1.3 –12.0 –21.9
Nuclear 1 725 2 319 2 593 2 892 1.0 0.9 4.8 21.4
Hydro 1 170 1 267 1 429 1 570 1.1 0.8 1.2 3.4
Renewables (excluding hydro) 152 310 773 1 759 8.6 6.9 2.7 14.7
Biomass and waste 118 196 316 483 4.4 3.5 3.1 –0.3
Wind 4 77 364 993 15.1 10.3 1.7 18.2
Geothermal 29 35 59 100 4.9 4.1 0.5 5.4
Solar 1 2 32 159 31.0 19.3 13.9 54.3
Tide and wave 1 1 2 24 11.3 15.6 24.3 109.5
Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total capacity 2 360 2 719 3 199 1.3 1.2 –3.8 –9.8
Coal 656 683 630 0.4 –0.2 –8.8 –32.1
Oil 234 215 112 –0.8 –2.8 –4.5 –19.9
Gas 654 808 1 026 1.9 1.7 –6.7 –15.1
Nuclear 305 324 362 0.5 0.7 5.1 22.3
Hydro 428 462 500 0.7 0.6 0.9 2.7
of which pumped storage 79 79 79 0.0 0.0 – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 82 226 568 9.6 7.7 3.4 17.1
Biomass and waste 31 51 78 4.7 3.6 4.4 0.0
Wind 43 145 369 11.6 8.6 1.9 13.5
Geothermal 5 8 14 4.7 3.9 0.4 5.3
Solar 3 21 101 19.9 14.6 13.5 53.4
Tide and wave 0 0 6 6.0 13.0 23.7 109.3
CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 11 051 12 827 13 828 13 184 0.7 0.1 –3.9 –14.9
Coal 4 101 4 334 4 534 3 792 0.4 –0.5 –4.8 –25.0
Oil 5 029 5 713 6 114 5 990 0.6 0.2 –3.3 –9.6
Gas
Power generation
1 920 2 780 3 180 3 402 1.2 0.8 –3.9 –10.7
and heat plants 3 904 4 905 5 333 4 631 0.8 –0.2 –5.4 –24.3
Coal 3 024 3 665 3 949 3 288 0.7 –0.4 –5.1 –27.2
Oil 471 372 330 187 –1.1 –2.6 –4.7 –11.9
Gas 409 867 1 054 1 156 1.8 1.1 –6.7 –16.8
Total final consumption 6 553 7 274 7 814 7 827 0.7 0.3 –3.1 –9.3
Coal 1 012 589 514 442 –1.2 –1.1 –2.7 –6.9
Oil 4 196 4 967 5 410 5 421 0.8 0.3 –3.4 –10.1
of which transport 2 688 3 445 3 814 3 915 0.9 0.5 –3.8 –11.4
Gas 1 345 1 717 1 891 1 965 0.9 0.5 –2.4 –7.4
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 531
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A