World Energy Outlook 2006

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Table 11.2: Change in Energy Demand by Fuel and Region (%, year-on-year) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2000- 2004** OECD Total primary demand 2.0 –0.4 0.8 1.0 2.0 n.a. 0.9 Coal 3.7 –0.5 1.2 0.4 2.3 n.a. 0.8 Oil 0.1 0.4 –0.2 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.8 Gas 4.2 –1.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 –0.1 0.9 Total final consumption 2.4 –0.5 0.6 1.8 2.0 n.a. 1.0 Oil 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.2 2.1 n.a. 1.1 Gas 6.1 –3.0 1.5 2.2 –0.4 n.a. 0.1 Electricity Non-OECD 3.7 0.4 1.3 2.5 2.1 n.a. 1.6 Total primary demand 2.5 1.9 3.7 6.1 7.3 n.a. 4.7 Coal 2.0 –0.2 6.4 12.8 13.9 n.a. 8.1 Oil 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.6 6.7 2.8 3.7 Gas 3.9 2.9 3.4 6.2 4.1 4.9 4.2 Total final consumption 2.1 2.4 2.8 4.4 6.7 n.a. 4.1 Oil 3.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 8.1 n.a. 4.2 Gas 3.1 1.6 3.5 6.4 6.3 n.a. 4.4 Electricity World 5.7 3.7 5.7 8.4 8.1 n.a. 6.4 Total primary demand 2.2 0.7 2.2 3.4 4.6 n.a. 2.7 Coal 2.8 –0.3 3.9 7.1 8.9 n.a. 4.8 Oil 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 1.3 2.0 Gas 4.1 0.4 3.0 3.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 Total final consumption 2.3 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.3 n.a. 2.5 Oil 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.8 4.3 n.a. 2.2 Gas 5.0 –1.4 2.2 3.7 2.1 n.a. 1.7 Electricity 4.4 1.6 2.8 4.6 4.4 n.a. 3.3 n.a.: not available. * Preliminary estimates. ** Average annual growth rate. Responsiveness of Energy Demand to Price Changes Energy is always consumed for the services it can provide, rather than as an end in itself. Demand for any kind of energy service is determined by a number of factors. In most instances, the two most important factors are real incomes and Chapter 11 - The Impact of Higher Energy Prices 283 11 © OECD/IEA, 2007
Figure 11.8: Increase in World Primary Oil Demand by Region (year-on-year) mb/d 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 –0.5 average 1995-1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 OECD Europe OECD North America Developing Asia Rest of non-OECD Note: Preliminary estimates for 2005. bcm 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 –20 –40 average 2000 2001 2002 2003 1995-1999 OECD Pacific Figure 11.9: Increase in Natural Gas Demand by Region (year-on-year) OECD Europe OECD North America Developing Asia Rest of non-OECD Note: Preliminary estimates for 2005. 2004 2005 OECD Pacific 284 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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Page 235 and 236: emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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Page 239 and 240: energy-intensive processes in both
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Page 243 and 244: Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
Page 245 and 246: which have much lower equipment own
Page 247 and 248: Policy Overview Policies taken into
Page 249 and 250: � Utility energy efficiency schem
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Page 253 and 254: Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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Page 259 and 260: Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
Page 261 and 262: � Introduction of CO2 capture and
Page 263 and 264: Implications for Energy Security Th
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Page 271 and 272: Introduction Since the first oil sh
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Page 275 and 276: second-largest consumer of gas - ga
Page 277 and 278: Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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Page 281 and 282: Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
Page 283: Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
Page 287 and 288: complicated by the role played by o
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Page 291 and 292: higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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Page 305 and 306: Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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Page 311 and 312: Most OECD countries have experience
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Page 315 and 316: $0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
Page 317 and 318: � The five years to 2010 will see
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Page 323 and 324: illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Page 331 and 332: Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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