World Energy Outlook 2006

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PART C FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS © OECD/IEA, 2007
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
Page 217 and 218: Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
Page 219 and 220: Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
Page 221 and 222: Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
Page 223 and 224: The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
Page 225 and 226: As oil is the principal fuel in tra
Page 227 and 228: Fuel Economy Governments intervene
Page 229 and 230: The broad categories of policy ment
Page 231 and 232: millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
Page 233 and 234: period. The fleet grows most rapidl
Page 235 and 236: emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
Page 237 and 238: greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
Page 239 and 240: energy-intensive processes in both
Page 241 and 242: more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
Page 243 and 244: Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
Page 245 and 246: which have much lower equipment own
Page 247 and 248: Policy Overview Policies taken into
Page 249 and 250: � Utility energy efficiency schem
Page 251 and 252: � Four-fifths of the energy and e
Page 253 and 254: Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
Page 255 and 256: These examples reflect differences
Page 257 and 258: countries (for example in relation
Page 259 and 260: Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
Page 261 and 262: � Introduction of CO2 capture and
Page 263 and 264: Implications for Energy Security Th
Page 265 and 266: ole in power supply, if its costs c
Page 267: © OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 271 and 272: Introduction Since the first oil sh
Page 273 and 274: y about 60% of the increase in the
Page 275 and 276: second-largest consumer of gas - ga
Page 277 and 278: Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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Page 281 and 282: Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
Page 283 and 284: Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
Page 285 and 286: Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
Page 287 and 288: complicated by the role played by o
Page 289 and 290: crude oil price elasticity of fuel
Page 291 and 292: higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
Page 293 and 294: 2004. It is projected to increase f
Page 295 and 296: to drive prices up. Demand appears
Page 297 and 298: on the results of our assessment of
Page 299 and 300: countries, a price increase directl
Page 301 and 302: toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
Page 303 and 304: to examine the issue, reflecting th
Page 305 and 306: Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
Page 307 and 308: actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
Page 309 and 310: 0.9 percentage points higher in 200
Page 311 and 312: Most OECD countries have experience
Page 313 and 314: developing countries has risen by 4
Page 315 and 316: $0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
Page 317 and 318: � The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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World Energy Outlook 2006

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