World Energy Outlook 2006

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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD Pacific Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total generation 1 130 1 719 2 034 2 136 1.5 0.8 –3.3 –9.2 Coal 253 630 682 469 0.7 –1.1 –8.7 –36.4 Oil 274 164 122 46 –2.6 –4.8 –12.6 –36.2 Gas 198 340 403 397 1.6 0.6 –2.7 –22.2 Nuclear 255 413 603 870 3.5 2.9 1.4 15.8 Hydro 133 142 148 161 0.4 0.5 1.2 3.5 Renewables (excluding hydro) 17 30 76 194 9.0 7.5 21.2 52.8 Biomass and waste 13 21 40 69 6.0 4.7 28.1 44.1 Wind 0 2 18 73 20.1 14.0 26.9 75.0 Geothermal 4 6 10 15 4.5 3.7 – 4.2 Solar 0 0 8 34 46.3 24.1 9.6 58.7 Tide and wave 0 0 0 2 – – – 151.8 Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total capacity 386 428 483 1.0 0.9 –3.2 –6.8 Coal 94 108 86 1.2 –0.3 –4.0 –29.6 Oil 69 53 20 –2.5 –4.7 –13.5 –50.7 Gas 89 106 140 1.6 1.8 –4.0 –8.2 Nuclear 61 75 108 1.9 2.2 1.3 15.2 Hydro 65 68 72 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.4 of which pumped storage 28 28 28 0.0 0.0 – – Renewables (excluding hydro) 7 18 55 9.6 8.5 11.8 49.8 Biomass and waste 3 7 11 7.4 5.1 29.0 39.7 Wind 2 5 21 11.7 10.6 6.4 59.3 Geothermal 1 1 2 4.0 3.4 –0.0 4.1 Solar 1 5 21 14.1 11.6 3.0 52.5 Tide and wave 0 0 0 – – – 122.1 CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total CO2 emissions 1 564 2 055 2 187 1 918 0.6 –0.3 –4.7 –17.2 Coal 519 803 838 620 0.4 –1.0 –6.6 –27.8 Oil 885 960 990 941 0.3 –0.1 –3.7 –8.1 Gas Power generation 160 292 359 357 1.9 0.8 –2.9 –17.5 and heat plants 538 847 892 625 0.5 –1.2 –7.1 –32.3 Coal 276 596 630 424 0.5 –1.3 –7.8 –34.4 Oil 167 94 71 27 –2.5 –4.6 –12.4 –35.2 Gas 94 157 190 173 1.7 0.4 –2.7 –25.8 Total final consumption 957 1 118 1 204 1 203 0.7 0.3 –3.0 –7.3 Coal 219 174 176 166 0.1 –0.2 –2.7 –7.3 Oil 679 817 868 863 0.5 0.2 –3.1 –7.2 of which transport 320 440 483 494 0.9 0.4 –3.8 –8.5 Gas 60 126 160 174 2.2 1.2 –3.2 –7.9 Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 537 © OECD/IEA, 2007 A
Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan Energy demand (Mtoe) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total primary energy supply 446 533 571 563 0.6 0.2 –2.5 –7.0 Coal 77 116 108 74 –0.6 –1.7 –6.6 –24.5 Oil 253 253 243 218 –0.4 –0.6 –3.7 –7.7 Gas 48 72 86 78 1.6 0.3 –2.5 –21.8 Nuclear 53 74 101 143 2.9 2.6 – 7.9 Hydro 8 8 8 8 –0.2 0.0 – – Biomass and waste 5 6 17 27 9.4 5.7 29.9 37.9 Other renewables Power generation 3 4 7 15 6.2 5.4 6.3 31.6 and heat plants 171 219 249 250 1.2 0.5 –2.7 –9.1 Coal 25 60 55 26 –0.7 –3.1 –9.6 –42.2 Oil 48 24 16 5 –3.7 –5.9 –16.6 –45.5 Gas 33 47 55 45 1.5 –0.2 –2.2 –30.1 Nuclear 53 74 101 143 2.9 2.6 – 7.9 Hydro 8 8 8 8 –0.2 0.0 – – Biomass and waste 2 4 8 12 7.3 4.5 54.9 60.9 Other renewables Other transformation, 1 3 5 10 5.1 4.8 4.6 27.2 own use and losses 41 52 50 47 –0.3 –0.4 –2.7 –7.6 of which electricity 7 9 9 8 0.2 –0.3 –3.9 –11.0 Total final consumption 306 354 373 365 0.5 0.1 –2.8 –6.5 Coal 32 27 27 25 –0.1 –0.3 –2.9 –7.9 Oil 189 214 213 199 0.0 –0.3 –2.8 –6.6 Gas 15 27 31 32 1.5 0.7 –3.2 –7.3 Electricity 65 83 91 90 0.8 0.3 –3.9 –10.7 Heat 0 1 1 1 1.9 1.3 – – Biomass and waste 3 2 8 14 12.1 7.2 11.7 22.9 Other renewables 1 1 2 5 9.5 7.1 10.6 42.4 Industry 130 136 142 138 0.4 0.1 –2.0 –4.5 Coal 32 27 27 25 –0.1 –0.3 –2.9 –7.9 Oil 59 61 62 57 0.1 –0.3 –1.0 –2.8 Gas 5 11 13 13 1.6 0.6 –4.0 –8.8 Electricity 32 34 35 34 0.2 0.0 –2.8 –7.5 Heat 0 0 0 0 – – – – Biomass and waste 3 2 5 9 7.7 5.5 0.7 16.3 Other renewables 0 0 0 0 – – – – Transport 76 94 96 92 0.1 –0.1 –2.8 –6.0 Oil 74 92 93 88 0.0 –0.2 –3.7 –7.8 Biofuels 0 0 1 2 – – 231.1 216.2 Other fuels Residential, services 1 2 2 2 2.5 1.7 8.0 14.1 and agriculture 89 115 126 127 0.9 0.4 –3.5 –8.8 Coal 0 0 0 0 – – – – Oil 45 50 50 46 –0.1 –0.3 –3.3 –8.3 Gas 11 16 18 18 1.2 0.6 –3.1 –7.0 Electricity 31 48 54 54 1.2 0.5 –4.8 –13.2 Heat 0 1 1 1 1.9 1.3 – – Biomass and waste 0 0 2 3 48.0 19.7 10.0 2.9 Other renewables 1 1 2 5 9.4 7.1 10.6 42.4 Non-energy use 11 10 9 8 –0.9 –0.8 –3.0 –9.4 538 World Energy Outlook 2006 © OECD/IEA, 2007
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Warning: Please note that this PDF
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Page 490 and 491: ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 492 and 493: ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
Page 494 and 495: Reference Scenario: World Electrici
Page 496 and 497: Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
Page 498 and 499: Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 500 and 501: Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 502 and 503: Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
Page 504 and 505: Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
Page 506 and 507: Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
Page 508 and 509: Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 510 and 511: Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
Page 512 and 513: Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
Page 514 and 515: Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
Page 516 and 517: Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 518 and 519: Reference Scenario: China Electrici
Page 520 and 521: Reference Scenario: India Electrici
Page 522 and 523: Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 524 and 525: Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
Page 526 and 527: Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
Page 528 and 529: Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
Page 530 and 531: Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 532 and 533: Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
Page 534 and 535: Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
Page 536 and 537: Alternative Policy Scenario: United
Page 540 and 541: Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
Page 542 and 543: Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
Page 544 and 545: Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
Page 546 and 547: Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
Page 548 and 549: Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
Page 550 and 551: Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
Page 552 and 553: Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
Page 554 and 555: Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 556 and 557: Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 558 and 559: Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
Page 560 and 561: Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
Page 562 and 563: Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
Page 564 and 565: Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
Page 566 and 567: ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
Page 568 and 569: Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
Page 574 and 575: Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
Page 576 and 577: Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
Page 578 and 579: Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
Page 580 and 581: China China refers to the People’
Page 582 and 583: APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
Page 584 and 585: RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
Page 586 and 587: Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
Page 596 and 597:
REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
Page 598 and 599:
The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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