World Energy Outlook 2006

the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, particularly in the
Middle East, grows significantly. 7 Their collective output of crude oil, NGLs
and non-conventional oil grows from 34 mb/d in 2005 to 42 mb/d in 2015
and 56 mb/d in 2030, boosting their share of world oil supply from 40% now
to 48% by the end of the Outlook period. Non-OPEC production increases
much more slowly, from its current level of 48 mb/d to 55 mb/d in 2015 and
58 mb/d in 2030 (Table 3.2). Conventional oil accounts for the bulk of
the increase in oil supply between 2005 and 2030, but non-conventional
resources play an increasingly important role (Figure 3.5). The projections
to 2010 take account of current, sanctioned and planned upstream projects
(see Chapter 12).
Production in OPEC countries, especially in the Middle East, is expected to
increase more rapidly than in other regions, because their resources are much
larger and their production costs are generally lower. Saudi Arabia remains by
far the largest producer of crude oil and NGLs. Its total output of crude and
NGLs grows from 10.9 mb/d in 2005, to 13.7 mb/d in 2015 and to
17.6 mb/d in 2030 (including Saudi Arabia’s half-share of Neutral Zone
production). Most of the rest of the increase in OPEC production comes from
Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Libya and Venezuela. Other
OPEC countries struggle to lift output, with production dropping in Qatar,
Algeria and Indonesia. These projections are broadly commensurate with
proven reserves. OPEC’s price and production policies and national policies on
developing reserves are extremely uncertain.
Outside OPEC, conventional crude oil production in aggregate is projected to
peak by the middle of the next decade and decline thereafter, though this is
partly offset by continued growth in output of NGLs (Figure 3.6). Production
in several mature regions, including North America and the North Sea, which
has been in steady decline in recent years, stabilises or rebounds in the near
term. This reflects several factors, including the restoration of production
capacity lost through hurricanes and other technical difficulties, and the impact
on increased drilling to boost production in response to recent oil-price
increases. But this trend is expected to be short-lived, as relatively high decline
rates and rising costs soon drive output back down again. In the longer term,
only Russia, Central Asia, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa – including
Angola and Congo – achieve any significant increases in conventional oil
production.
7. OPEC is assumed to be willing to meet the portion of global oil demand not met by non-OPEC
producers at the prices assumed (see Chapter 1). A special analysis of the effect of lower OPEC
investment in upstream capacity is presented at the end of this chapter.
94 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007