World Energy Outlook 2006

energy-intensive processes in both OECD and non-OECD countries. In this
way, regional differences in the potential for energy-efficiency improvements
were taken into account. The projected improvements in efficiency in the
Alternative Policy Scenario are derived from changes in the energy efficiency of
each process and from changes in the mix of processes used. A rapid decline in
energy intensity in transition economies and developing countries is already
incorporated into the Reference Scenario, on the assumption that the energy
intensity of industrial production will approach OECD levels by 2030. In the
Alternative Policy Scenario, the gap in efficiency between OECD and non-
OECD narrows even further. The energy intensity of industrial processes varies
considerably worldwide (Table 9.8). Japan is the world’s most efficient
producer of steel and cement, because of relatively higher energy costs. Russia,
India and China tend to have the lowest efficiencies.
Table 9.8: Energy Intensities in the Steel, Cement and Ammonia Industries
in Selected Countries, 2004 (Index, 100=most efficient country)
Primary steel Cement clinker Ammonia
Japan 100 100 n.a.
Korea 105 110 n.a.
Europe 110 120 100
United States 120 145 105
China 150 160 133
India 150 135 120
Russia
Technical potential with
150 165 111
best available technology 75 90 60
Sources: METI (2004), IEA databases.
The methodological approach used here differs between OECD and non-
OECD regions. For OECD countries, the Alternative Policy Scenario analyses
the impact of new policies to improve energy efficiency in process heat, steam
generation and motive power. Policies include standards and certification for
new motor systems, voluntary programmes to improve the efficiency of
industrial equipment and to accelerate the deployment of new boilers, machine
drives and process-heat equipment, and research and development to
improve the efficiency of equipment entering the market after 2015.
For non-OECD regions, the analysis focuses on efficiency improvements in the
production of iron and steel, ammonia, ethylene and propylene, aromatics,
cement and pulp and paper. For each process, the efficiency of new capital
stock is assumed to approach that of the current stock in OECD countries.
However, in some industries, including aluminium, efficiency is already
238 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007