World Energy Outlook 2006

There is a shift in the breakdown of global production by type of coal over the
Outlook period, reflecting demand trends and differences in local availability and
production costs. Production of steam coal grows most rapidly, accounting for
85% of the total increase in output between 2004 and 2030 (Figure 5.3). Coking
coal accounts for a mere 8%, and brown coal and peat for the rest. Most of the
growth in brown coal production takes place in OECD Europe.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Figure 5.3: Global Coal Production by Type in the Reference Scenario
(million tonnes)
0%
1 194
2 995
533
1990
Coking coal
932
4 039
588
1 101
5 483
2004 2015 2030
Steam coal Brown coal and peat
Chapter 5 - Coal Market Outlook 131
743
1 160
6 847
Inter-Regional Trade
Global inter-regional trade 2 in hard coal expands at a rate of 1.8% per year over
2004-2030, from 619 Mt in 2004 to 975 Mt in 2030 (Table 5.3). Even so, most
coal will continue to be consumed within the region in which it is produced.
Trade grows slightly quicker than demand, more so if China and India are
excluded. The share of inter-regional trade in total hard coal consumption
worldwide will remain flat at 13% between 2004 and 2030. Trade in brown coal
and peat remains negligible. Trade in steam coal grows much faster than in
coking coal, largely because demand increases more quickly. Steam coal accounts
for 85% of the total expansion in coal trade growth. International steam-coal
trade grows faster than demand, because demand outstrips indigenous
production in some regions. As a result, the share of steam coal in global
hard-coal trade increases from 71% in 2004 to 76% in 2030 (Figure 5.4).
2. As for oil and gas, the projections presented here cover only trade between WEO regions, not trade
within those regions. In 2004, inter-regional trade accounted for about 80% of total international
hard-coal trade.
851
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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