World Energy Outlook 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario: Developing Asia
Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total generation 1 274 3 758 7 180 10 571 6.1 4.1 –6.3 –13.1
Coal 727 2 442 4 789 6 448 6.3 3.8 –9.2 –23.4
Oil 166 222 254 205 1.2 –0.3 –1.6 –3.0
Gas 59 406 662 882 4.5 3.0 –11.4 –20.8
Nuclear 39 110 300 672 9.6 7.2 13.9 43.7
Hydro 277 545 1 009 1 603 5.8 4.2 3.9 9.3
Renewables (excluding hydro) 7 33 165 762 15.7 12.8 10.1 57.5
Biomass and waste 0 10 76 323 19.8 14.1 10.8 68.2
Wind 0 4 58 340 28.2 18.9 15.7 54.4
Geothermal 7 17 29 51 5.1 4.3 – 6.5
Solar 0 2 2 47 0.6 12.9 – 98.7
Tide and wave 0 0 0 1 – – – 444.4
Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total capacity 789 1 477 2 251 5.9 4.1 –5.7 –10.4
Coal 421 825 1 112 6.3 3.8 –9.7 –23.7
Oil 62 72 60 1.4 –0.1 –0.5 –1.0
Gas 107 188 270 5.3 3.6 –10.3 –21.1
Nuclear 14 38 84 9.6 7.2 13.3 42.6
Hydro 177 317 506 5.4 4.1 4.2 9.6
of which pumped storage 0 0 0 – – – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 9 38 218 14.1 13.1 10.0 66.0
Biomass and waste 2 12 51 19.1 13.8 6.1 68.7
Wind 4 20 133 16.6 14.7 15.5 64.9
Geothermal 3 4 8 5.2 4.3 – 6.3
Solar 1 1 26 0.0 14.5 – 97.5
Tide and wave 0 0 0 – – – 441.7
CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 3 563 7 265 10 580 12 937 3.5 2.2 –6.7 –17.3
Coal 2 567 5 071 7 462 8 615 3.6 2.1 –7.4 –20.4
Oil 850 1 746 2 388 3 242 2.9 2.4 –5.6 –12.2
Gas
Power generation
146 448 730 1 080 4.5 3.4 –3.0 –5.3
and heat plants 1 052 3 462 5 313 6 470 4.0 2.4 –7.8 –20.7
Coal 868 3 083 4 816 5 925 4.1 2.5 –7.8 –20.8
Oil 146 178 201 161 1.1 –0.4 –1.4 –2.7
Gas 38 200 295 383 3.6 2.5 –12.7 –24.2
Total final consumption 2 355 3 472 4 842 5 966 3.1 2.1 –5.7 –14.3
Coal 1 642 1 866 2 509 2 543 2.7 1.2 –6.8 –19.7
Oil 644 1 432 2 013 2 895 3.1 2.7 –6.0 –12.5
of which transport 290 695 1 013 1 703 3.5 3.5 –5.9 –12.5
Gas 69 174 320 528 5.7 4.3 5.4 8.5
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 551
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A