World Energy Outlook 2006

one of the IEA’s responses to that request, which the G8 reaffirmed in July
2006 at its summit in St. Petersburg.
The Alternative Policy Scenario 3 presented in the 2004 edition of the Outlook
analysed how the global energy market could evolve if countries around the world
were to adopt a set of policies and measures that they were then considering and
might be expected to implement over the projection period. The aim was to
provide a clear picture of how far policies and measures then under discussion
could take us in dealing with energy-security and climate-change challenges.
This edition of the Outlook deepens and broadens that analysis. In particular,
it takes a step further by offering guidance to policy-makers about the costeffectiveness
of policy options. To offer guidance on near-term policies, as
well as on trends through to 2030, information is provided for the year 2015.
Full details of the results of the analysis are presented in tabular form
in Annex A, the first such complete presentation in the World Energy
Outlook series.
Preparation for the Alternative Policy Scenario in this Outlook involved
detailed quantitative assessments of the impact of different policies and
measures. The range of policies assessed was broader than that for WEO-2004,
reflecting in particular the heightened global interest in threats to energy
security. Sectoral detail is provided on the effects of specific policies and
measures in each region, so as to help policy-makers identify the actions that
could work best and quickest for them and at what cost. Detailed country-bycountry
and sector-by-sector results are presented for energy savings and CO 2
emissions reductions. A comprehensive economic assessment also quantifies
the investment requirements on both the supply and demand sides and the
cost savings from reduced energy consumption. Greater attention is given to
China, India and other developing countries because of their growing
significance in the overall picture.
The first part of this chapter summarises the background to the Alternative
Policy Scenario, including the methodological approach and key assumptions.
This is followed by an overview of the resulting global energy trends, including
a detailed analysis of fossil-fuel supply and the implications for inter-regional
trade and energy-related CO 2 emissions. Chapter 8 sets out the economic costs
and benefits of the Alternative Policy Scenario.
Chapter 9 analyses, sector by sector, the effects on energy demand and CO 2
emissions of the policies and measures included. Chapter 10 discusses what will
be involved in implementing the policies of the Alternative Policy Scenario and
3. The Alternative Policy Scenario was first introduced in WEO-2000. Subsequent WEO editions
expanded the regional, sectoral and technology coverage of the scenario: WEO-2002 extended the
analysis to all transformation and end-use sectors in OECD regions. The analysis in WEO-2004
covered for the first time all world regions.
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