World Energy Outlook 2006

global consumption of biomass is 58 Mtoe higher in 2030 in the
Alternative Policy Scenario than in the Reference Scenario. The
consumption of other renewables – wind, geothermal, and solar power – is
also higher, by 26%, or 77 Mtoe in 2030. Power generation accounts for
two-thirds of the increase in renewables; transport use of biofuels and, to
a lesser extent, heating from solar water-heaters and geothermal use in final
consumption contribute the rest.
Mtoe
Figure 7.4: Incremental Non-Fossil Fuel Demand in the Reference
and Alternative Policy Scenarios,
2004-2030
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Reference Scenario
Nuclear Biomass Hydro Other
renewables
Additional demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario
At the final consumption level, electricity demand is 24 672 TWh in 2030
– a reduction of 12% compared to the Reference Scenario. It falls by 5% by
2015. Energy-efficiency measures in buildings, in particular those
concerning appliances, air-conditioning and lighting, contribute two-thirds
of the savings. The other one-third comes from improvements in the
efficiency of industrial processes. Heat demand is also 5%, or 18 Mtoe,
lower compared to the Reference Scenario, mainly because of stricter
building codes and better insulation. The final consumption of all three
fossil fuels is also lower, but slightly less in percentage terms than primary
demand (Table 7.3).
176 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007