World Energy Outlook 2006

Power Generation
Summary of Results
Power generation is the fastest-growing sector, both in terms of energy demand
and carbon-dioxide emissions. In the Reference Scenario, the share of electricity
in world energy demand is projected to increase from 16% in 2004 to 21% in
2030. The power sector now accounts for 41% of total energy-related CO 2
emissions. This share rises to 44% in 2030 in the Reference Scenario. The power
sector can use a wide range of fuels and offers numerous options to alter these
trends, reducing emissions and improving security of supply.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, new policies cut CO 2 emissions by 22%
in 2030. They also reduce dependence on imported fuels, notably gas. Powergeneration
demand for gas is 22% lower in 2030. World electricity generation
reaches 29 835 TWh in 2030, 12% lower than in the Reference Scenario,
mainly as a result of end-use efficiency improvements. The reduction
corresponds approximately to seven years of demand growth. In other words,
electricity generation in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario roughly
corresponds to electricity generation in 2023 in the Reference Scenario. The
savings are greater than all the electricity now generated in OECD Europe in
a year. Over half of the savings occur in developing countries, where the
potential to improve end-use efficiency is greatest (Figure 9.1).
Figure 9.1: Reduction in Electricity Generation in the Alternative Policy
Scenario* by Region, 2030
Developing
countries
55%
* Compared with the Reference Scenario.
3 916 TWh
Transition
economies
5%
OECD
40%
The projected trends in the Alternative Policy Scenario imply a more rapid
decline in electricity intensity – electricity consumption per unit of GDP –
than in the Reference Scenario and a substantial deviation from recent trends
214 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007