World Energy Outlook 2006

Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Share of Nuclear Power in the Reference
and Alternative Policy Scenarios
Region Nuclear capacity Share of nuclear in
(GW) electricity generation (%)
2005 2030 2030 2005 2030 2030
Reference Alternative Reference Alternative
Scenario Policy Scenario Policy
OECD 308 296 362 22% 16% 22%
OECD North America 112 128 144 18% 15% 18%
OECD Europe 131 74 110 28% 12% 20%
OECD Pacific 65 94 108 25% 32% 41%
Transition economies 40 54 64 17% 18% 23%
Developing countries 19 66 93 2% 3% 5%
China 6 31 50 2% 3% 6%
India 3 19 25 2% 6% 9%
Other Asia 5 10 10 4% 3% 4%
Latin America 3 4 6 2% 2% 3%
Middle East and Africa 2 3 3 1% 1% 1%
World 368 416 519 15% 10% 14%
Note: The share of nuclear power in the Alternative Policy Scenario remains stable in the OECD, and increases
in the transition economies and the developing countries, but the world share decreases because of the greater
weight of developing countries in world demand in 2030.
The largest increases in nuclear power generating capacity are expected in
China, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea, India and Russia.
These six countries are projected to hold two-thirds of the world’s nuclear
capacity in 2030, compared with just over half today. Nuclear capacity factors
are the same as in the Reference Scenario.
The largest increase in the share of nuclear power in electricity generation is
expected to be in OECD Pacific, where it reaches 41% in 2030, up from 25%
now (Figure 13.6). In OECD North America, nuclear power maintains its
current share. In OECD Europe, the share of nuclear power falls to 20% by
2030. This share is higher than in the Reference Scenario, but still lower than
the current share of 28%. In the transition economies, the share of nuclear
power rises from 17% to 23%. In China and India, these shares reach 6% and
9% in 2030, up from 2% now.
362 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS
© OECD/IEA, 2007