World Energy Outlook 2006

actually did since 2002. 17 The average loss of GDP for oil-importing
developing Asian countries was around 0.6% (Table 11.7). Heavily indebted
poor countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, suffered the biggest loss of GDP.
Table 11.7: Estimated Impact of Higher Oil Prices since 2002 on Real GDP
2002-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2005*
Actual GDP growth (%)
OECD 1.6 2.0 3.3 2.8 2.7
Oil-importing developing Asia 7.3 8.7 9.1 9.2 9.0
Heavily indebted poor countries 3.6 4.2 6.4 5.8 5.5
World
Simulated GDP growth at
2002 price levels (%)
3.1 4.1 5.3 4.9 4.8
OECD 1.6 2.1 3.5 3.2 3.0
Oil-importing developing Asia 7.3 9.0 9.6 10.1 9.6
Heavily indebted poor countries 3.6 4.7 7.4 7.5 6.5
World
Difference, percentage points
3.1 4.3 5.6 5.5 5.1
OECD 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3
Oil-importing developing Asia 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6
Heavily indebted poor countries 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.0
World 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3
* Average annual rate.
Source: IEA analysis.
Explaining Macroeconomic Resilience to Higher Energy Prices
The analysis described above indicates that oil prices still matter to the
economic health of the world in general and of oil-importing developing
countries in particular. This would suggest that the recent substantial increase
in oil prices ought to have resulted in a significant economic loss in oilimporting
countries. In fact, most countries around the world have continued
to grow strongly. According to the IMF, the world economy grew by 5.3% in
2004 – the fastest rate since the 1970s – and by a still brisk 4.9% in 2005
(IMF, 2006a). All major regions saw faster growth in 2003 and 2004, though
most countries – including the United States and Europe – have slowed into
2005. The industrialised countries grew by 2.6% in 2005, down from a peak
of 3.2% in 2004. Other emerging market and developing countries grew on
17. In this case, oil demand would have grown even faster than it did.
306 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS
© OECD/IEA, 2007