World Energy Outlook 2006

energy demand for transport in 2030. Final natural gas consumption more than
doubles, reaching 21.2 Mtoe in 2030, with industrial demand accounting for
80% of the increase. Demand for renewable energy, almost entirely biomass and
waste, increases from 47 Mtoe in 2004 to nearly 80 Mtoe in 2030.
Among end-use sectors, transport demand grows most briskly, by 2.7% per
year. Transport demand grew much slower in recent years, by some 1.6% per
year from 1999 to 2004, thanks to efficiency gains. These improvements are
expected to continue, but stronger GDP growth over the next decade causes
demand growth to accelerate. The share of transport energy demand in total
final consumption is projected to rise from 30% in 2004 to 35% in 2030.
Rising incomes will lead to increased car ownership and driving, as well as to
more freight. Policies are expected to have a significant impact; in particular,
the vehicle labelling policy, part of Petrobras’ CONPET programme, is likely
to encourage the uptake of more efficient vehicles. The share of ethanol-fuelled
cars and flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the car stock is also expected to continue
to rise. Demand for biofuels for transport increases from 6.4 Mtoe in 2004 to
20.3 Mtoe in 2030, an average rate of increase of 4.6% per year.
Passenger car ownership in Brazil, at about 150 vehicles per 1 000 people, is
more than three times higher than the average for the rest of Latin America.
Car ownership in Brazil is projected to rise to over 335 per 1 000 people by
2030, roughly three-quarters the ownership in Europe today. The passenger car
stock nearly triples over the Outlook period (Figure 16.3).
million vehicles
80
60
40
20
0
Figure 16.3: Passenger Car Stock in Brazil in the Reference
and Alternative Policy Scenarios
2000 2005 2015 2030
Passenger cars
Passenger car ownership (right axis)
Chapter 16 - Focus on Brazil 457
400
300
200
100
0
cars per thousand inhabitants
16