World Energy Outlook 2006

The share of non-hydro renewable sources in total electricity generation increases from
2% now to almost 7% by 2030. This increase occurs largely in OECD countries,
though several developing countries are also adopting policies to increase the use of
renewables, among them China. Wind power achieves the biggest increase in market
share, from 0.5% now to 3.4% in 2030. The share of electricity generation from
biomass increases from 1.3% to 2.4%. Geothermal power grows at 4.5% per year and
its share increases from 0.3% to 0.5%. Solar, tidal and wave energy sources increase
their contributions towards the end of the projection period.
Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions from Power Generation
In the Reference Scenario, world CO 2 emissions from power plants are
projected to increase by two-thirds over the period 2004-2030, at a rate of 2%
per year. Power generation is now responsible for 41% of global energy-related
CO 2 emissions. This share rises to 44% in 2030, mainly because of the growing
share of electricity in energy consumption. In developing countries, CO 2
emissions from this sector grow by 131%, while they increase by only 10% in
transition economies and 25% in the OECD. China and India together
account for 58% of the global increase in CO 2 from power generation over
2004-2030, because of their strong reliance on coal. In 2030, emissions from
power plants in China and India will be greater than those from power plants
in the OECD. Almost all of the increase in power-sector emissions in China and
India combined can be attributed to coal-fired generation, as opposed to about
a third in other developing countries and 70 % in the OECD (Figure 6.6).
million tonnes
3 500
2 500
1 500
500
–500
Figure 6.6: Increase in Power-Sector CO 2 Emissions by Fuel
in the Reference Scenario, 2004-2030
OECD Transition China India Rest of
economies
developing
countries
Coal Oil Gas
144 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007