World Energy Outlook 2006

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Figure 4.4: Main Net Inter-Regional Natural Gas Trade Flows in the Reference Scenario, 2004 and 2030 (bcm) Chapter 4 - Gas Market Outlook 119 © OECD/IEA, 2007 4
Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growing US Gas-Supply Gap The roller-coaster rise of US natural gas prices in recent years bears testimony to the shifting balance of gas supply and demand. Average monthly well-head prices peaked at almost $11/MBtu in October 2005 in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, sliding to only $6.50 by March 2006 and remaining below $7 for most of the time through to July. The ratio of gas to oil prices is now at its lowest level since early 2000. The main reason is that rising prices since the end of the 1990s have choked off demand – particularly in the chemicals and power sectors. Warmer weather in the winter of 2005-2006 also curtailed demand. Higher prices have, by contrast, been much less effective in stimulating indigenous output, despite increased drilling: marketed production in 2005 would barely have increased had Katrina not occurred, even though the number of gas wells drilled reached almost 26 000 – an increase of 28% on 2004 and almost two-thirds on 2000. In fact, output in 2005 fell to its lowest level since 1992. Increased imports of LNG have made good most of the shortfall, with piped gas imports from Canada rising only modestly. The diminishing additions to net capacity from increased drilling reflect the maturity of conventional gas basins, as drilling focuses on smaller and smaller pockets of gas and as decline rates at producing fields and wells gather pace. Raising US production in the long term will undoubtedly call for a shift in drilling to new basins, including non-conventional deposits. One of the most prospective areas is the Alaskan North Slope, but development of the region’s vast gas reserves will require the construction of a pipeline system to connect with the existing systems in British Columbia and Alberta in Western Canada that export gas to the United States. A 40-50 bcm/year pipeline to ship gas from the North Slope, proposed by producers BP, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil, is assumed to be commissioned after 2015. Supply from indigenous sources is nonetheless not expected to keep pace with demand over the projection period. We expect total US gas production to level off after 2015, leading to higher imports – mostly in the form of LNG. Five regasification terminals are under construction, another 12 projects have been approved by the national authorities and dozens more have been proposed. Local opposition may prevent some of these projects from going ahead. The terminals now being built will, alone, add about 65 bcm/year of capacity by 2010 to the 60 bcm/year of capacity at the country’s five existing terminals. If all the approved projects go ahead, capacity would exceed 200 bcm/year. Sources: IEA databases; EIA/DOE online databases (www.eia.doe.gov); IEA (2006a). 120 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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Page 73 and 74: Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
Page 75 and 76: Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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Page 79 and 80: Exploration and development Explora
Page 81 and 82: China United States Middle East Ind
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Page 87 and 88: Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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Page 91 and 92: new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
Page 93 and 94: Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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Page 97 and 98: A lack of reliable information on p
Page 99 and 100: Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
Page 101 and 102: mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
Page 103 and 104: Investment Cumulative global invest
Page 105 and 106: amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
Page 107 and 108: Environmental policies and regulati
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Page 113 and 114: Demand Primary gas consumption is p
Page 115 and 116: The long-term rate of increase in G
Page 117 and 118: cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
Page 119: Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
Page 123 and 124: construction of upstream and downst
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Page 127 and 128: Demand Global coal use is projected
Page 129 and 130: Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
Page 131 and 132: international demand. In contrast,
Page 133 and 134: Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
Page 135 and 136: Consolidation of the mining industr
Page 137 and 138: � Exchange rates: A drop in the v
Page 139 and 140: Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
Page 141 and 142: TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
Page 143 and 144: generating capacity from 364 GW in
Page 145 and 146: The share of non-hydro renewable so
Page 147 and 148: y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
Page 149 and 150: phase-out policies require 27 GW of
Page 151 and 152: illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
Page 153 and 154: Increasing interconnection capacity
Page 155 and 156: (in year-2005 dollars). These refor
Page 157 and 158: Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
Page 163 and 164: � Policies encouraging more effic
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Page 169 and 170: Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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