World Energy Outlook 2006

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and the projected growth of heavy non-conventional oil output. These trends, together with increasing demand for lighter oil products and increasing fuelquality standards, is expected to increase the need for investment in upgrading facilities in refineries. Production from Non-Conventional Resources Production of non-conventional oil, mainly in non-OPEC countries, is expected to contribute almost 8% to global oil supplies by 2030 – up from less than 2% now. Output jumps from 1.6 mb/d to 9 mb/d. The bulk of this increase comes from oil sands in Canada. 10 Gas-to-liquids plants also make a small but growing contribution to non-conventional oil supplies, rising from 0.1 mb/d in 2005 to 0.3 mb/d in 2015 and 2.3 mb/d in 2030. Coal-to-liquids production is projected to reach 750 kb/d in 2030, with most of this output coming from China, where low-cost coal supplies are abundant (see Chapter 5). Several countries have significant oil-shale resources, though they are not expected to make a significant contribution to global oil supply before 2030. Canadian non-conventional oil production is centred in the province of Alberta. The province contains an estimated 315 billion barrels of ultimately recoverable crude bitumen resources, with proven reserves of 174 billion barrels at year-end 2005 (NEB, 2006). Alberta produces diluted bitumen and upgraded crude, most of which is exported to the United States. In both cases, the primary hydrocarbon content, known as natural bitumen, is extracted from oil-sand deposits. This bitumen is then diluted with lighter hydrocarbons and transported to a refinery or upgraded on site into a high-quality synthetic crude oil, which can be refined in the normal way. In 2005, Canadian production of non-conventional oil totalled 1 mb/d. Output is projected to triple by 2015 and climb further to close to 5 mb/d by 2030. There are currently 12 oil-sands projects under construction and another 38 proposed projects in Alberta. Investment of almost $80 billion is planned for the next 10 years. Some 36 of these projects involve mining or drilling while the rest are new or expanded projects involving upgrading facilities. Of the drilling projects, 45% are in situ steam-assisted gravity drainage – a process that involves the injection of steam into the oil-sands deposits to allow the bitumen to flow to well bores and then to the surface (Table 3.3). Our projections take account of the availability and cost of natural gas – the primary energy input to in situ oil-sands production. The majority of the new production is expected to be of the higherquality upgraded crude. Many new players have entered the oil-sands industry, including several international oil and gas companies and foreign national oil companies. In the Reference Scenario, capital expenditure averages about $6.8 billion per year over the projection period. 10. Most of the production of extra-heavy bituminous crude oil in Venezuela is now classified as conventional oil. Chapter 3 - Oil Market Outlook 97 © OECD/IEA, 2007 3
Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Projects and Expansions in Canada Production Start Bitumen capacity Company Project name type date (kb/d) Suncor Voyager Integrated 2010-12 500 – 550 Canadian Natural Horizon Integrated 2008-17 500 Resources Limited Oil Sands Imperial/ExxonMobil Canada Kearl Mine Integrated 2010-18 300 North West North West upgrader Integrated 2010-16 200 Husky Lloydminster upgrader Integrated 2007-09 150 BA Energy Heartland upgrader Integrated 2008-12 150 Petro-Canada/UTS/ Fort Hills Integrated n.a. 100 Teck Cominco phase 1 EnCana Foster Creek In situ 2010-15 500 Birch Mountain Resources Birch Mountain In situ 2011-23 200 Husky Sunrise In situ 2008-14 200 Shell Carmon Creek In situ 2009-15 90 Total E&P (formerly Deer Creek) Joslyn In situ 2006-11 40 Source: IEA databases. We have revised significantly upwards our projections of output from Canadian non-conventional resources since the last edition of the Outlook, in response to higher oil prices and to growing interest in developing such resources. Higher oil prices have already boosted revenues from oil-sands and extra-heavy oil projects, though profitability has increased proportionately less because of higher electricity and natural gas prices. Non-conventional projects are very energy-intensive, so their profitability is very sensitive to energy-input prices. 11 For in situ production, the availability and price of diluent for blending and the differential between heavy and light crude oil prices are also 11. On average, about 30 cubic metres of natural gas is used in producing a single barrel of bitumen in Canada (NEB, 2006). 98 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Page 51 and 52: would be needed (over and above tho
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Page 59 and 60: for heating, and faster improvement
Page 61 and 62: Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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Page 67 and 68: Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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Page 73 and 74: Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
Page 75 and 76: Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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Page 79 and 80: Exploration and development Explora
Page 81 and 82: China United States Middle East Ind
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Page 87 and 88: Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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Page 91 and 92: new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
Page 93 and 94: Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
Page 95 and 96: the Organization of the Petroleum E
Page 97: A lack of reliable information on p
Page 101 and 102: mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
Page 103 and 104: Investment Cumulative global invest
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Page 107 and 108: Environmental policies and regulati
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Page 113 and 114: Demand Primary gas consumption is p
Page 115 and 116: The long-term rate of increase in G
Page 117 and 118: cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
Page 119 and 120: Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
Page 121 and 122: Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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Page 127 and 128: Demand Global coal use is projected
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Page 133 and 134: Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Page 139 and 140: Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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Page 143 and 144: generating capacity from 364 GW in
Page 145 and 146: The share of non-hydro renewable so
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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