World Energy Outlook 2006

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Alternative Policy Scenario: China Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total generation 650 2 237 4 696 6 786 7.0 4.4 –5.0 –11.0 Coal 471 1 739 3 666 4 766 7.0 4.0 –7.6 –20.3 Oil 49 72 63 53 –1.1 –1.1 –0.3 –0.2 Gas 3 19 86 159 14.5 8.4 4.4 –6.1 Nuclear 0 50 157 414 10.9 8.4 26.5 61.7 Hydro 127 354 660 992 5.8 4.0 1.5 5.9 Renewables (excluding hydro) 0 2 64 401 34.3 21.6 13.6 75.6 Biomass and waste 0 2 36 175 27.6 17.8 10.6 89.0 Wind 0 0 26 197 – – 19.4 62.4 Geothermal 0 0 2 6 – – – 19.4 Solar 0 0 0 22 – – – 143.7 Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 – – – 600.0 Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total capacity 442 916 1 371 6.8 4.4 –4.5 –8.4 Coal 307 638 833 6.9 3.9 –7.2 –20.0 Oil 16 19 17 2.0 0.2 –1.0 1.6 Gas 8 27 54 12.4 7.9 –6.9 –12.7 Nuclear 6 19 50 11.0 8.5 26.5 61.7 Hydro 105 198 298 5.9 4.1 1.5 5.9 of which pumped storage 0 0 0 – – – – Renewables (excluding hydro) 1 15 120 25.2 19.2 12.0 82.9 Biomass and waste 0 6 28 26.8 17.6 2.8 90.1 Wind 1 9 79 24.9 19.5 19.3 75.9 Geothermal 0 0 1 – – – 19.4 Solar 0 0 12 0.0 21.6 – 131.1 Tide and wave 0 0 0 – – – 595.0 CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total CO2 emissions 2 289 4 769 7 298 8 801 3.9 2.4 –5.8 –15.6 Coal 1 952 3 897 5 935 6 726 3.9 2.1 –6.3 –17.6 Oil 304 779 1 149 1 679 3.6 3.0 –5.7 –12.8 Gas Power generation 32 93 214 397 7.9 5.8 12.7 18.9 and heat plants 623 2 355 3 842 4 629 4.6 2.6 –6.3 –17.4 Coal 568 2 269 3 723 4 483 4.6 2.7 –6.5 –17.7 Oil 52 72 68 56 –0.5 –0.9 –0.4 –0.4 Gas 3 14 51 90 12.3 7.3 1.7 –7.6 Total final consumption 1 579 2 211 3 198 3 865 3.4 2.2 –5.3 –14.0 Coal 1 332 1 509 2 078 2 099 3.0 1.3 –6.0 –17.8 Oil 225 640 992 1 528 4.1 3.4 –5.9 –12.7 of which transport 83 290 490 965 4.9 4.7 –6.1 –12.9 Gas 22 61 127 238 6.9 5.4 17.0 25.4 Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 553 © OECD/IEA, 2007 A
Alternative Policy Scenario: India Energy demand (Mtoe) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total primary energy supply 361 573 733 964 2.3 2.0 –5.4 –12.7 Coal 105 196 259 338 2.6 2.1 –8.4 –25.0 Oil 63 127 176 238 3.0 2.4 –4.3 –11.3 Gas 10 23 39 63 4.8 3.9 –2.2 –7.7 Nuclear 2 4 19 48 14.4 9.6 5.3 33.1 Hydro 6 7 13 25 5.0 4.9 5.5 20.3 Biomass and waste 176 214 224 241 0.4 0.5 –4.9 –4.7 Other renewables Power generation 0 0 3 10 20.9 14.0 14.1 53.2 and heat plants 73 182 268 419 3.6 3.3 –5.8 –12.9 Coal 58 147 197 275 2.7 2.4 –7.1 –22.8 Oil 4 9 11 11 2.5 0.8 –0.1 –0.1 Gas 3 13 19 29 3.8 3.2 –2.3 –9.7 Nuclear 2 4 19 48 14.4 9.6 5.3 33.1 Hydro 6 7 13 25 5.0 4.9 5.5 20.3 Biomass and waste 0 1 6 23 16.5 12.4 –31.7 18.9 Other renewables Other transformation, 0 0 2 8 18.5 12.8 13.9 39.7 own use and losses 19 45 57 69 2.2 1.6 –7.5 –18.3 of which electricity 7 19 28 40 3.5 2.9 –8.8 –18.8 Total final consumption 294 403 508 652 2.1 1.9 –5.0 –11.7 Coal 41 36 48 51 2.6 1.3 –13.4 –34.8 Oil 54 107 152 214 3.3 2.7 –4.5 –11.6 Gas 6 9 17 31 6.6 5.0 –2.2 –6.6 Electricity 18 38 72 135 5.9 5.0 –3.6 –9.5 Heat 0 0 0 0 – – – – Biomass and waste 176 213 218 218 0.2 0.1 –3.9 –6.7 Other renewables 0 0 1 3 – – 15.0 115.9 Industry 75 109 155 207 3.2 2.5 –4.4 –10.5 Coal 28 29 40 46 3.2 1.9 –11.7 –27.5 Oil 13 33 47 61 3.4 2.4 –3.3 –8.9 Gas 6 8 15 24 6.1 4.3 –1.5 –2.9 Electricity 9 17 26 42 3.9 3.6 –3.1 –6.8 Heat 0 0 0 0 – – – – Biomass and waste 20 23 27 33 1.4 1.3 2.8 10.3 Other renewables 0 0 0 0 – – – – Transport 28 36 49 74 2.7 2.8 –3.5 –9.0 Oil 26 36 47 67 2.6 2.5 –3.7 –12.2 Biofuels 0 0 0 4 – – 32.9 84.6 Other fuels Residential, services 3 1 1 2 5.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 and agriculture 187 243 277 322 1.2 1.1 –5.7 –13.9 Coal 11 8 8 5 0.3 –2.0 –21.0 –68.0 Oil 12 26 35 44 2.5 2.0 –7.9 –19.1 Gas 0 1 2 7 11.4 9.1 –6.4 –18.0 Electricity 8 19 41 83 7.6 5.9 –4.4 –11.7 Heat 0 0 0 0 – – – – Biomass and waste 156 190 191 181 0.0 –0.2 –4.8 –10.3 Other renewables 0 0 0 2 – – 16.0 118.9 Non-energy use 4 15 27 50 5.8 4.8 –3.0 –4.8 554 World Energy Outlook 2006 © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
Page 504 and 505: Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
Page 506 and 507: Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
Page 508 and 509: Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 510 and 511: Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
Page 512 and 513: Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
Page 514 and 515: Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
Page 516 and 517: Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 518 and 519: Reference Scenario: China Electrici
Page 520 and 521: Reference Scenario: India Electrici
Page 522 and 523: Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 524 and 525: Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
Page 526 and 527: Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
Page 528 and 529: Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
Page 530 and 531: Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 532 and 533: Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
Page 534 and 535: Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
Page 536 and 537: Alternative Policy Scenario: United
Page 538 and 539: Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
Page 540 and 541: Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
Page 542 and 543: Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
Page 544 and 545: Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
Page 546 and 547: Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
Page 548 and 549: Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
Page 550 and 551: Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
Page 552 and 553: Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
Page 556 and 557: Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 558 and 559: Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
Page 560 and 561: Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
Page 562 and 563: Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
Page 564 and 565: Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
Page 566 and 567: ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
Page 568 and 569: Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
Page 574 and 575: Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
Page 576 and 577: Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
Page 578 and 579: Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
Page 580 and 581: China China refers to the People’
Page 582 and 583: APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
Page 584 and 585: RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
Page 586 and 587: Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
Page 588 and 589: CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
Page 590 and 591: Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
Page 592 and 593: International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
Page 594 and 595: CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
Page 596 and 597: REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
Page 598 and 599: The Online Bookshop International E
Page 600 and 601: IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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