World Energy Outlook 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total generation 838 1 071 1 161 1 142 0.7 0.2 –3.9 –10.7
Coal 116 294 271 129 –0.7 –3.1 –10.5 –43.1
Oil 251 133 86 27 –3.9 –6.0 –16.6 –45.7
Gas 166 244 275 246 1.1 0.0 –2.0 –25.6
Nuclear 202 282 389 550 2.9 2.6 – 7.9
Hydro 89 94 92 94 –0.2 0.0 – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 13 23 48 97 6.8 5.6 19.2 37.4
Biomass and waste 12 19 31 44 4.7 3.4 19.4 17.1
Wind 0 1 7 27 16.5 12.4 42.5 75.0
Geothermal 2 3 5 7 3.4 3.1 – 9.2
Solar 0 0 5 17 103.7 41.7 13.0 69.6
Tide and wave 0 0 0 1 – – – 129.5
Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total capacity 261 263 276 0.1 0.2 –3.2 –9.7
Coal 44 44 26 0.0 –2.0 – –39.1
Oil 58 41 12 –3.2 –5.9 –16.5 –62.9
Gas 61 68 87 0.9 1.4 –3.7 –8.5
Nuclear 45 50 71 0.9 1.8 – 7.9
Hydro 47 47 48 0.1 0.1 – –
of which pumped storage 25 25 25 0.0 0.0 – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 5 12 30 8.4 7.2 20.0 53.7
Biomass and waste 2 5 7 7.1 4.3 24.4 21.2
Wind 1 2 9 9.2 8.9 31.5 71.5
Geothermal 1 1 1 3.0 2.9 – 9.1
Solar 1 4 13 11.8 10.0 12.8 71.1
Tide and wave 0 0 0 – – – 130.4
CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 1 057 1 211 1 188 955 –0.2 –0.9 –5.0 –17.2
Coal 292 414 390 248 –0.5 –2.0 –7.3 –28.2
Oil 650 623 594 527 –0.4 –0.6 –4.2 –8.6
Gas
Power generation
115 174 204 181 1.5 0.1 –2.6 –22.4
and heat plants 354 454 428 240 –0.5 –2.4 –8.3 –37.6
Coal 125 269 248 117 –0.7 –3.1 –9.6 –42.2
Oil 151 74 49 15 –3.7 –5.9 –16.6 –45.5
Gas 78 111 131 107 1.5 –0.1 –2.2 –30.1
Total final consumption 660 715 721 680 0.1 –0.2 –3.1 –7.3
Coal 151 129 128 119 –0.1 –0.3 –2.9 –8.0
Oil 474 523 521 489 0.0 –0.3 –3.0 –7.0
of which transport 206 252 252 239 0.0 –0.2 –3.7 –7.8
Gas 36 62 72 73 1.4 0.6 –3.5 –7.8
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 539
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A