World Energy Outlook 2006

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3.12 Access to World Proven Oil Reserves, end-2005 105 3.13 Reduction in World Oil Demand and OPEC Market Share 108 3.14 World Oil Production in the Deferred Investment Case Compared with the Reference Scenario 109 Chapter 4. Gas Market Outlook 4.1 World Primary Natural Gas Demand by Sector in the Reference Scenario 113 4.2 Proven Gas Reserves and Production by Region, 2005 115 4.3 Natural Gas Production by Region in the Reference Scenario 116 4.4 Main Net Inter-Regional Natural Gas Trade Flows in the Reference Scenario, 2004 and 2030 119 4.5 World Inter-Regional Natural Gas Trade by Type in the Reference Scenario 121 4.6 Cumulative Investment in Gas-Supply Infrastructure by Region and Activity in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 122 Chapter 5. Coal Market Outlook 5.1 Share of Power Generation in Total Coal Consumption by Region in the Reference Scenario 128 5.2 Proven Coal Reserves by Country 129 5.3 Global Coal Production by Type in the Reference Scenario 131 5.4 Net Inter-Regional Trade in Hard Coal in the Reference Scenario 133 5.5 Indicative Supply Costs for Internationally Traded Steam Coal 134 5.6 Structure of Steam Coal Supply Costs for Major Exporting Countries 135 Chapter 6. Power Sector Outlook 6.1 World Electricity Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario 138 6.2 Average Annual Growth in Electricity Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario 139 6.3 World Incremental Electricity Generation by Fuel in the Reference Scenario 140 6.4 Incremental Coal-Fired Electricity Generation by Region in the Reference Scenario, 2004-2030 141 6.5 World Hydropower Potential 143 6.6 Increase in Power-Sector CO 2 Emissions by Fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2004-2030 144 6.7 Electricity Generating Cost Ranges of Baseload Technologies 145 6.8 Impact of Capacity Factor on Generating Costs 146 Table of Contents 23 © OECD/IEA, 2007
6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Generating Costs 147 6.10 Cumulative Power-Sector Investment by Region in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 149 6.11 Cumulative Power-Sector Investment by Type in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 150 6.12 European Generation Margins 151 6.13 US Capacity Reserve Margins 152 6.14 Japan Power-Sector Investment, 1998 to 2003 153 6.15 Private Investment in Electricity Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 1990-2004 154 6.16 Cumulative Private Investment in Electricity Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 1990-2004 155 6.17 Population without Electricity, 2005 156 Chapter 7. Mapping a New Energy Future 7.1 Years Saved in the Alternative Policy Scenario in Meeting the Levels of Deployment of the Reference Scenario in 2030 172 7.2 World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios 174 7.3 Incremental Demand and Savings in Fossil Fuels in the Alternative Policy Scenario, 2004-2030 174 7.4 Incremental Non-Fossil Fuel Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2004-2030 176 7.5 Change in Primary Energy Intensity by Region in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2004-2030 177 7.6 Oil Supply in the Alternative Policy Scenario 180 7.7 Increase in Net Oil Imports in Selected Importing Regions in the Alternative Policy Scenario 182 7.8 Natural Gas Imports in Selected Importing Regions in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios 184 7.9 Coal Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios 185 7.10 Change in Oil and Gas Imports in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2004-2030 187 7.11 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region in the Alternative Policy Scenario 189 7.12 Change in Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2004-2030 189 7.13 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Savings by Region in the Alternative Policy Scenario, 2030 191 7.14 Global Savings in CO 2 Emissions in the Alternative Policy Scenario Compared with the Reference Scenario 192 24 World Energy Outlook 2006 © OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 1 and 2: Warning: Please note that this PDF
Page 3 and 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
Page 5 and 6: It is possible to go further and fa
Page 7 and 8: Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
Page 9 and 10: Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
Page 11 and 12: John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
Page 13 and 14: © OECD/IEA, 2007
Page 15 and 16: T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
Page 17 and 18: Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
Page 19 and 20: 8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
Page 21 and 22: 13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
Page 23: List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
Page 27 and 28: 9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
Page 29 and 30: 13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
Page 31 and 32: Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
Page 33 and 34: 11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
Page 35 and 36: Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
Page 37 and 38: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 39 and 40: half of the increase in global prim
Page 41 and 42: Will the investment come? Meeting t
Page 43 and 44: World primary energy demand in 2030
Page 45 and 46: above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
Page 47 and 48: Larger energy savings would require
Page 51 and 52: would be needed (over and above tho
Page 55 and 56: Government Policies and Measures As
Page 57 and 58: over the projection period, as it d
Page 59 and 60: for heating, and faster improvement
Page 61 and 62: Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
Page 63 and 64: dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
Page 65 and 66: is assumed that available end-use t
Page 67 and 68: Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
Page 69 and 70: een revised down and that for coal
Page 71 and 72: Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
Page 73 and 74: Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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