World Energy Outlook 2006

of hydropower is 16% in 2030, the same as now. Total hydropower capacity
reaches 1 431 GW in 2030, compared with 851 GW now and 1 373 GW in
2030 in the Reference Scenario. In the Alternative Policy Scenario, hydropower
capacity in China increases from 105 GW in 2004 to 298 GW in 2030. 1 In
India, it increases from 31 GW to 105 GW. Electricity from biomass, wind,
solar, geothermal and tide and wave power reaches 2 872 TWh in 2030, almost
eight times higher than now and 27% higher than in the Reference Scenario.
Their share in electricity generation grows from 2% now to 10% in 2030.
Most of the growth is in wind power and biomass. These substantial increases
reflect new policies to support the development of renewables as well as cost
reductions resulting from technological learning (Figure 9.6).
Figure 9.5: Shares of non-Hydro Renewable Energy in Electricity
Generation by Region in the Alternative Policy Scenario
Transition economies
India
China
Brazil
OECD Pacific
Africa
World
OECD North America
Other developing Asia
OECD Europe
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2004
2030
At 13.7 gigatonnes, power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2030 are 22% lower in
the Alternative Policy Scenario than in the Reference Scenario. Emissions per
unit of electricity produced drop substantially, mainly because of the larger
shares of nuclear power and renewables in the electricity mix (Figure 9.7).
Overall, the electricity mix decarbonises at a rate of 1.1% per year. In the
OECD, power-sector emissions are roughly stable through to 2020 and start
falling thereafter. In 2030, they are 6% lower than in 2004. In developing
counties, CO 2 emissions from power plants are 22% lower than in the
1. Recent plans of the Chinese government call for an increase to 300 GW by 2020.
Chapter 9 - Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 219
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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