World Energy Outlook 2006

speculative than backing unproven technologies. This does not mean that
large-scale application of these technologies is imminent. Without sustained
research and development efforts, many of these technologies will remain
too expensive to be used outside niche applications (IEA, 2006b). But this
level of achievement will also need technologies which are, as yet, far from
commercial application.
A number of technologies are listed in Table 10.2, with an eye to
developments beyond 2030. Some of these (solar PV, CCS and plug-in
hybrids) are assumed to be deployed in the BAPS Case – albeit at low levels, in
some cases. However, nearly all of them could make a significant contribution
to energy supply after 2030. But they are unlikely to be commercialised and
deployed rapidly in the absence of determined policy intervention. For
example, for many forms of renewables-based power generation, the variability
of the resource quality and the intermittency of supply will impede
deployment (IEA, 2006a). Such constraints impose limits on their wideranging
deployment, even if their costs are competitive on some bases of
comparison. Long-distance transmission of electricity could play a significant
Table 10.2: Options for Emissions Reductions beyond 2030
Power generation Solar PV and concentrating solar power in combination
with long-distance electricity transportation
Ocean energy
Deep-water wind turbines
Hot dry rock geothermal
Generation IV nuclear reactors
Large-scale storage systems for intermittent power sources
Advanced network design
Low-cost CCS for gas-fired power plants
Distributed generation
Low-cost unconventional gas
Transport Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Transmodal transportation systems
Intermodal shift
Industry CCS
Biomass feedstocks/biorefineries
Buildings Advanced urban planning
Zero-energy buildings
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© OECD/IEA, 2007