World Energy Outlook 2006

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Table 11.1: Consumption Subsidy as Percentage of Reference Energy Price in non-OECD Countries, 2005 Gasoline Diesel Kerosene LPG Light fuel Heavy fuel Natural gas Coal Electricity oil oil China 5 13 3 18 0 0 45 17 0 Chinese Taipei 0 0 0 9 27 6 0 5 0 India 0 0 47 26 0 0 70 0 5 Indonesia 24 54 58 30 35 n.a. 0 58 13 Malaysia 26 37 0 33 9 0 n.a. n.a. 5 Thailand 0 16 0 35 0 0 65 57 10 Pakistan 0 28 19 n.a. 21 n.a. 59 0 n.a. Philippines 0 0 5 0 34 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 Vietnam 6 26 5 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 14 Iran 82 96 76 67 32 73 66 0 30 Saudi Arabia 51 81 6 n.a. 81 n.a. 89 n.a. 54 Egypt 65 80 88 94 80 71 76 0 4 South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 41 Nigeria 19 17 42 6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 24 Brazil 0 0 n.a. 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 Argentina 20 5 0 0 0 0 58 n.a. 27 Venezuela 90 96 0 82 94 84 n.a. n.a. 25 Russia 0 0 0 0 0 16 57 0 34 Kazakhstan 28 20 n.a. n.a. 49 48 83 86 24 Ukraine 0 23 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 83 36 27 Chapter 11 - The Impact of Higher Energy Prices 281 Weighted average 1 15 27 19 6 10 57 12 8 n.a.: not available. Note: Based on weighted average subsidies and prices across final sectors for each fuel. Cross-subsidies between sectors are, therefore, not included. Source: IEA analysis. 11 © OECD/IEA, 2007
Impact of Higher Energy Prices on Demand Energy Demand Trends since Prices Started Rising Global primary energy demand 6 grew rapidly between 2000 and 2004, averaging 2.7% per year (Table 11.2). 7 Demand grew by only 1.3% on average in the 1990s. Demand grew about six times faster in non-OECD countries than in the OECD. In developing Asia it grew faster than in any other major world region. In most regions, demand growth slowed in 2001 and then accelerated in 2002 and 2003, with the 4.6% increase in global energy demand in 2004 representing the fastest rate since 1976. Much of the growth came from China and other developing countries. Partial data suggest that energy demand growth may have slowed in 2005, partly in response to higher prices. Global oil demand has grown on average more slowly than energy demand in total since 2000. The cumulative increase in global oil use between 2000 and 2004 was 8%, compared to 11% for energy demand as a whole. On average, oil demand grew by 1.8% per year in the five years to 2005, the same rate as during the second half of the 1990s (Figure 11.8). Developing Asian countries accounted for 46% of the total increase in oil demand between 2000 and 2005, with 29% coming from China alone. China and North America together contributed more than half of the exceptional increase of more than 3 mb/d, or 4%, in 2004 – the fastest rate of increase since 1977. Other non-OECD regions have contributed most of the rest of the increase in oil demand since 2000, especially in 2004 and 2005. Other fuels have followed markedly different trends. Globally, primary demand for gas has grown strongly, averaging 2.4% per year since 2000. It surged in 2003, by almost 100 billion cubic metres – despite weaker North American demand – and continued to grow strongly in 2004 and 2005, contributing to the overall strength of energy prices (Figure 11.9). North American gas demand fluctuated between 2000 and 2005. European demand grew without pause, but at varying rates. Demand in non-OECD regions, including developing Asia, grew steadily at an average rate of more than 4% between 2000 and 2005. On average, non-OECD regions accounted for more than 80% of the total increase in global gas demand between 2000 and 2005. World coal use has followed a more erratic path. It rose strongly in the three years to 2004, driven mainly by a surge in demand for power generation in China and the rest of developing Asia. World demand surged by 7% in 2003 and 9% in 2004. In 2001, coal use fell slightly. Chinese coal demand grew by about 20% in both 2003 and 2004. World electricity consumption grew at just over 3% per year over 2000-2004. 6. Demand and consumption are used interchangeably throughout this chapter and the rest of the Outlook. 7. We do not have a complete picture of energy demand beyond 2004 because of data gaps. Preliminary data on aggregate demand in some large countries are available for 2005, notably for oil and gas. 282 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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Page 243 and 244: Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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Page 247 and 248: Policy Overview Policies taken into
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Page 261 and 262: � Introduction of CO2 capture and
Page 263 and 264: Implications for Energy Security Th
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Page 271 and 272: Introduction Since the first oil sh
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Page 277 and 278: Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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Page 315 and 316: $0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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