World Energy Outlook 2006

2004. It is projected to increase further, to 52% in 2030 in the Reference
Scenario and 51% in the Alternative Policy Scenario (Figure 11.14). This
factor is expected to outweigh the effect of the growing share in global oil
demand of developing countries, where overall price elasticity is generally
higher. In this case, oil demand would continue to become less and less
responsive to movements in crude oil prices. This means that crude oil prices
can be expected to fluctuate more than in the past in response to short-term
shifts in demand and supply.
Figure 11.14: Share of Transport Sector in Primary
Oil Consumption in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Note: 2005 data are estimated.
Source: IEA analysis.
World OECD Non-OECD China Rest of
developing
countries
1980 2004
Transition
economies
2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
Demand for non-oil forms of energy has generally been less affected by higher
price. 9 Demand for natural gas has been depressed by rising prices in some
regions, most clearly in North America, where higher bulk prices quickly feed
through into final prices and where there is still substantial fuel-switching
9. It is difficult to assess fully the impact of higher prices since 2003 on demand for other forms of
energy as comprehensive data are generally available only up to 2004.
292 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS
© OECD/IEA, 2007