World Energy Outlook 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total generation 11 731 17 408 23 682 29 835 2.8 2.1 –4.6 –11.6
Coal 4 478 6 917 9 751 10 914 3.2 1.8 –8.1 –25.8
Oil 1 313 1 161 1 154 869 –0.1 –1.1 –3.4 –7.6
Gas 1 613 3 412 4 730 6 170 3.0 2.3 –9.6 –20.8
Nuclear 2 013 2 740 3 268 4 106 1.6 1.6 5.1 24.3
Hydro 2 148 2 809 3 738 4 903 2.6 2.2 1.5 3.2
Renewables (excluding hydro) 166 369 1 041 2 872 9.9 8.2 5.5 26.8
Biomass and waste 125 227 455 983 6.5 5.8 8.0 22.2
Wind 4 82 449 1 440 16.7 11.6 3.8 27.3
Geothermal 36 56 100 185 5.5 4.7 0.3 6.3
Solar 1 4 34 238 21.0 16.8 12.8 67.8
Tide and wave 1 1 2 25 11.3 15.8 24.3 117.2
Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total capacity 4 054 5 418 7 104 2.7 2.2 –4.1 –9.8
Coal 1 235 1 664 1 885 2.7 1.6 –8.9 –26.5
Oil 453 466 336 0.3 –1.1 –3.0 –11.2
Gas 1 055 1 491 2 059 3.2 2.6 –7.0 –16.6
Nuclear 364 412 519 1.1 1.4 5.3 24.7
Hydro 851 1 100 1 431 2.4 2.0 1.9 4.2
of which pumped storage 79 79 79 0.0 0.0 – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 96 285 874 10.4 8.9 5.3 29.6
Biomass and waste 36 74 158 6.7 5.8 7.9 22.0
Wind 48 174 538 12.5 9.8 3.7 25.3
Geothermal 8 15 26 5.4 4.6 0.3 6.0
Solar 4 22 145 17.7 15.2 12.9 65.6
Tide and wave 0 0 7 6.0 13.3 23.7 116.9
CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 20 463 26 079 31 586 34 080 1.8 1.0 –5.2 –15.7
Coal 8 081 10 625 13 293 13 594 2.1 1.0 –6.5 –21.4
Oil
of which international
8 561 10 199 11 737 12 835 1.3 0.9 –4.1 –10.5
marine bunkers 363 521 547 561 0.4 0.3 –3.8 –9.8
Gas
Power generation
3 820 5 254 6 556 7 651 2.0 1.5 –4.7 –13.0
and heat plants 6 955 10 587 13 203 13 749 2.0 1.0 –7.1 –22.2
Coal 4 764 7 600 9 653 9 987 2.2 1.1 –6.8 –22.9
Oil 1 053 934 905 667 –0.3 –1.3 –5.8 –12.5
Gas 1 138 2 054 2 645 3 095 2.3 1.6 –8.7 –22.1
Total final consumption 12 047 13 668 16 335 18 065 1.6 1.1 –4.0 –11.1
Coal 3 188 2 817 3 424 3 391 1.8 0.7 –5.8 –17.3
Oil 6 595 8 091 9 565 10 833 1.5 1.1 –4.1 –10.6
of which transport 3 758 5 112 6 048 7 076 1.5 1.3 –4.4 –11.5
Gas 2 264 2 760 3 345 3 841 1.8 1.3 –1.9 –6.3
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 529
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A