World Energy Outlook 2006

The Alternative Policy Scenario assumes that measures are adopted to extend
the lifetime of existing nuclear power plants or to accelerate the construction
of new ones. A number of countries plan to expand the use of nuclear power.
Japan, Korea, Russia, China and India have specific development targets.
Extending the lifetime of existing reactors from 40 to 60 years helps maintain
a higher share of nuclear power.
The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is assumed to lead to
CO 2 emission reductions in the countries of the European Union through
short-term switching of coal to gas in power generation in both scenarios. At the
moment, there are many uncertainties about how the ETS will evolve and what
the size of the caps will be. Because of the uncertainties of the scheme, long-term
investment decisions are not assumed to be affected by it. In the Alternative
Policy Scenario, policies that provide incentives for energy efficiency and
renewables play a larger role than ETS in reducing power-sector CO 2 emissions.
Transport
Summary of Results
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, oil savings in the transport sector account for
around 60% of the total reduction in global oil demand. Energy demand in the
transport sector reaches 2 800 Mtoe in 2030, about 300 Mtoe, or 10%, less than
in the Reference Scenario (Table 9.3). The oil saved in transport amounts to
7.6 mb/d in 2030, equal to slightly more than the current production of Iran and
the United Arab Emirates combined. Those savings have profound implications
for oil import needs, as described in Chapter 7. Oil products still account for 90%
of transport demand in 2030, reflecting the extent of the challenge of developing
commercially viable alternatives to oil to satisfy mobility needs. Because road
transport currently accounts for about 80% of total transport energy demand,
savings in this sector have a large impact on projected growth. In the Alternative
Policy Scenario, demand for oil for road transport is 14% lower in 2030 than in
the Reference Scenario. Improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, increased use of
alternative fuels – mainly biofuels – and modal shifts (shifts to different forms of
transport) explain this trend. Reduced demand for aviation fuels accounts for 11%
of total savings in transport energy demand. 2
OECD countries see a saving of 146 Mtoe, or 9%, in this sector in 2030 in the
Alternative Policy Scenario. This is driven by two divergent underlying trends.
Oil savings of 183 Mtoe, or 12%, are larger than total energy savings, but they
are partially offset by an increase in biofuels, gas and electricity consumption
of 36 Mtoe, or 40%. The same trends occur in non-OECD countries, where
2. Later in this chapter, the impact of policies on aviation fuel use is examined for the first time in
the Outlook.
222 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007