World Energy Outlook 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario: Developing Countries
Electricity generation (TWh) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total generation 2 321 5 754 10 133 14 847 5.3 3.7 –5.7 –12.7
Coal 917 2 753 5 113 6 843 5.8 3.6 –9.7 –23.8
Oil 366 580 655 587 1.1 0.0 –2.3 –4.6
Gas 257 983 1 795 2 735 5.6 4.0 –8.2 –19.3
Nuclear 57 142 358 737 8.7 6.5 11.4 40.9
Hydro 709 1 239 1 967 2 919 4.3 3.4 2.0 3.2
Renewables (excluding hydro) 14 56 244 1 026 14.3 11.8 13.6 53.6
Biomass and waste 7 29 132 465 14.7 11.2 17.2 56.2
Wind 0 5 74 407 27.8 18.5 15.5 54.7
Geothermal 8 20 36 75 5.5 5.2 0.0 8.6
Solar 0 2 2 78 0.6 15.0 – 104.7
Tide and wave 0 0 0 1 – – – 439.4
Capacity (GW) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total capacity 1 289 2 256 3 400 5.2 3.8 –4.8 –9.9
Coal 470 884 1 184 5.9 3.6 –9.7 –23.6
Oil 189 223 209 1.5 0.4 –1.9 –6.3
Gas 265 513 819 6.2 4.4 –7.5 –17.4
Nuclear 18 45 93 8.5 6.4 10.9 40.0
Hydro 334 538 813 4.4 3.5 3.2 5.4
of which pumped storage 0 0 0 – – – –
Renewables (excluding hydro) 13 53 284 13.7 12.6 12.7 63.6
Biomass and waste 5 21 73 14.1 11.0 13.6 56.2
Wind 4 26 156 17.9 14.9 15.5 63.8
Geothermal 3 5 11 5.6 5.2 0.0 8.4
Solar 1 1 43 0.0 16.6 – 104.4
Tide and wave 0 0 0 – – – 441.3
CO2 emissions (Mt) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 5 317 10 171 14 369 17 550 3.2 2.1 –6.7 –16.9
Coal 2 871 5 508 7 911 9 097 3.3 1.9 –7.6 –20.6
Oil 1 938 3 392 4 450 5 636 2.5 2.0 –5.1 –11.2
Gas
Power generation
507 1 271 2 008 2 817 4.2 3.1 –6.3 –14.9
and heat plants 1 535 4 395 6 502 7 921 3.6 2.3 –8.9 –22.0
Coal 1 050 3 378 5 113 6 254 3.8 2.4 –8.2 –21.3
Oil 319 472 500 429 0.5 –0.4 –7.2 –13.5
Gas 167 545 890 1 238 4.6 3.2 –13.1 –27.7
Total final consumption 3 479 5 226 7 167 8 792 2.9 2.0 –5.0 –12.7
Coal 1 760 2 004 2 658 2 693 2.6 1.1 –6.5 –19.3
Oil 1 491 2 697 3 671 4 896 2.8 2.3 –4.8 –11.0
of which transport 740 1 435 1 964 2 866 2.9 2.7 –5.0 –11.4
Gas 228 525 838 1 202 4.3 3.2 –0.3 –2.5
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 549
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A