World Energy Outlook 2006

on the results of our assessment of the macroeconomic impact (see the
next section). Real GDP in the OECD is assumed to be 0.4% lower in 2007
and 0.6% lower from 2010 through to the end of the projection period.
On balance, world GDP is 0.6% lower in 2007 and 0.8% lower from
2010 onward relative to the Reference Scenario.
In this High Energy Prices Case, global primary energy demand is reduced by
465 Mtoe in 2015 and 561 Mtoe in 2030 – or 3.3% in both years – relative to
the Reference Scenario (Table 11.4). Higher demand for biomass and other
renewables partially offsets the reduction in demand for fossil fuels. The average
rate of global energy demand growth is 0.1 percentage points lower, at 1.5%. The
non-OECD regions account for most of the reduction in demand, because they
contribute most of the incremental demand in the Reference Scenario and because
end-user prices there increase proportionately more than in the OECD as their tax
rates are generally lower. Of the cumulative reduction in global energy demand,
more than 80% results from the direct price effect alone and the rest from the loss
of GDP. Oil accounts for the bulk of the reduction in demand, largely because
end-user prices increase most. Oil use is 7.2 mb/d, or 6.2%, lower in 2030. The
proportional reduction in oil demand is biggest in non-OECD regions, because
Table 11.4: Change in Primary Energy Demand by Fuel and Region in the
High Energy Prices Case Compared with the Reference Scenario
2015 2030
Mtoe % Mtoe %
OECD –201 –3.2 –216 –3.2
Oil –137 –5.5 –147 –5.7
Gas –55 –3.8 –61 –3.7
Coal –15 –1.3 –16 –1.3
Other 7 1.8 8 1.4
Non-OECD –253 –3.3 –332 –3.3
Oil –151 –7.2 –187 –6.7
Gas –55 –3.4 –88 –4.0
Coal –60 –2.5 –69 –2.2
Other 12 1.1 12 0.9
World –465 –3.3 –561 –3.3
Oil* –299 –6.3 –346 –6.2
Gas –110 –3.6 –149 –3.8
Coal –76 –2.1 –86 –1.9
Other 19 1.3 20 1.0
* Includes international marine bunkers.
296 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS
© OECD/IEA, 2007