World Energy Outlook 2006

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Figure 2.3: Incremental World Primary Energy Demand by Sector in the Reference Scenario, 2004-2030 Other final sectors* 27% Transport* 20% * Excluding electricity and heat. Other transformation 5% 2.6% per year, nearly doubling between 2004 and 2030. As a result, electricity’s share of total final consumption grows from 16% to 21% (Figure 2.4). In 1980, it was only 11%. Electricity use grows most rapidly in developing countries, as the number of people with access to electricity and incomes rises steadily. By 2030, the share of electricity in final energy use in developing countries almost reaches that of OECD countries. Yet per-capita consumption remains much lower, mainly because incomes are far smaller – even though the gap between OECD and developing country incomes narrows significantly over the projection period. In 2030, per-capita consumption reaches 26.9 kWh per day in OECD countries but only 6.2 kWh in non-OECD countries. The share of traditional biomass in final consumption declines, as developingcountry households switch to modern fuels for cooking and heating (see Chapter 15). The share of other renewables increases, but is still less than 1% in 2030. The shares of all other fuels hardly change over 2004-2030. Energy Production and Trade Power generation 47% Resources and Production Prospects Sufficient resources exist worldwide to permit the world’s energy industry to expand capacity in order to meet the projected increases in demand through to 2030 for each form of energy described above. The world’s remaining economically exploitable fossil-fuel, hydroelectric and uranium resources are Chapter 2 - Global Energy Trends 71 © OECD/IEA, 2007 2
Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Final Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Oil Coal Gas Electricity Heat Renewables 1980 2004 2030 adequate. At issue is whether these resources will actually be developed quickly enough and at what cost. The Reference Scenario is predicated on the assumption that the stated prices will be high enough to stimulate sufficient investment in new supply infrastructure to enable all the projected demand to be met. Notwithstanding this assumption, it is far from certain whether energy companies will be willing or able to invest in developing those resources and in bringing them to market, and how much it will cost. A number of factors may impede required investments from being made in a particular sector or region. These include a worsening of the investment climate, changes in government attitudes to foreign investment and capacity expansions, the adoption of more stringent environmental regulations and less favourable licensing and fiscal conditions. 2 Proven reserves of natural gas and coal are much larger than the cumulative amounts of both fuels that will be consumed over the projection period. Today, proven reserves are equal to 64 years of current consumption of gas and 164 years of coal. And substantial new reserves will undoubtedly be added between 2. The impact of a deferral of investment in the upstream oil industry is assessed in Chapter 3. A detailed assessment of current trends in oil and gas investment is provided in Chapter 12. The impact of new government policies to bolster energy security and curb energy-related greenhouse-gas emissions is assessed in the Alternative Policy Scenario, described in detail in Part B (Chapters 7-10). 72 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
Page 21 and 22: 13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
Page 25 and 26: 6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
Page 27 and 28: 9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
Page 29 and 30: 13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
Page 31 and 32: Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
Page 33 and 34: 11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
Page 35 and 36: Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
Page 37 and 38: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 39 and 40: half of the increase in global prim
Page 41 and 42: Will the investment come? Meeting t
Page 43 and 44: World primary energy demand in 2030
Page 45 and 46: above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Page 51 and 52: would be needed (over and above tho
Page 55 and 56: Government Policies and Measures As
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Page 59 and 60: for heating, and faster improvement
Page 61 and 62: Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
Page 63 and 64: dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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Page 67 and 68: Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
Page 69 and 70: een revised down and that for coal
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Page 75 and 76: Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
Page 77 and 78: capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
Page 79 and 80: Exploration and development Explora
Page 81 and 82: China United States Middle East Ind
Page 83 and 84: illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
Page 87 and 88: Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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Page 93 and 94: Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
Page 95 and 96: the Organization of the Petroleum E
Page 97 and 98: A lack of reliable information on p
Page 99 and 100: Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
Page 101 and 102: mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
Page 103 and 104: Investment Cumulative global invest
Page 105 and 106: amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
Page 107 and 108: Environmental policies and regulati
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Page 113 and 114: Demand Primary gas consumption is p
Page 115 and 116: The long-term rate of increase in G
Page 117 and 118: cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
Page 119 and 120: Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
Page 121 and 122: Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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construction of upstream and downst
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investment is incremental and where
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Demand Global coal use is projected
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Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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international demand. In contrast,
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Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Consolidation of the mining industr
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� Exchange rates: A drop in the v
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Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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