World Energy Outlook 2006

Electricity Demand Outlook
Global electricity demand 1 in the Reference Scenario is projected to
practically double over the next 25 years, from 14 376 TWh in 2004 to
28 093 TWh in 2030, growing at 2.6% per year on average. Growth is
stronger, at 3.3% per year in the period 2004-2015, falling to 2.1% per
year thereafter. In developing countries, demand grows three times as fast as
in the OECD, tripling by 2030 (Figure 6.1).
TWh
Figure 6.1: World Electricity Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
OECD
2004 2015 2030
Developing countries
Transition economies
The fastest growth in electricity demand, averaging 5.4% per year in 2004-
2030, occurs in India, followed by China at 4.9% per year (Figure 6.2). In
2004-2015, China’s demand for electricity grows by 7.6% per year, much
higher than the world average, but below the 12% annual average rate seen
over the past five years.
The share of electricity in total final energy consumption increases in industry,
in households and in the services sector in all regions. Overall, the share of
electricity in total final energy consumption worldwide is projected to rise from
16% in 2004 to 21% in 2030. Demand grows most rapidly in households,
underpinned by strong demand for appliances, followed by the services sector.
In absolute terms, industry is expected to remain the largest final consumer of
electricity throughout the projection period, but its share in final electricity
demand is projected to fall.
1. Demand refers to final consumption of electricity.
138 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007