World Energy Outlook 2006

into the Reference Scenario. End-use oil demand sees the greatest decline, from
131 Mtoe in 2030 in the Reference Scenario to 111 Mtoe in the Alternative
Policy Scenario. Final demand for biomass and waste declines slightly, by
2 Mtoe, mostly because of energy efficiency improvements in the industry
sector. Although demand for biofuels for transport is higher, energy savings in
the use of biomass for industry and residential use offset this expansion.
Transport demand is 12.6 Mtoe lower than in the Reference Scenario. Oil
demand in the transport sector grows by 1.5% per year, much slower than in
the Reference Scenario, while demand for biofuels grows more rapidly, at 5.1%
per year. By 2030, biofuels for transport account for 30% of road transport fuel
demand. Policies aimed at increasing the efficiency of the vehicle fleet also
lower transport demand growth in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
Demand in the industry sector in the Alternative Policy Scenario grows by
1.5% per year on average. By 2030, it is 10% lower than in the Reference
Scenario. The biggest drop is in electricity demand, thanks to the increased
efficiencies of motors. Gas demand is only slightly lower in the Alternative
Policy Scenario. Use of biomass is 7% less, but its share stays at about 35%.
Energy demand in the residential and services sector in the Alternative Policy
Scenario grows by 1.5% per year on average and is 10% less in 2030 compared
with the Reference Scenario (Figure 16.6). Overall percentage savings in this sector
are less than savings in both the residential and services sectors because there is very
little change in energy demand in the agricultural sector. Electricity demand is
lower, growing by only 1.9% per year, as a result of stronger policies to promote
energy-efficient lighting and the enforcement of tougher standards for appliances.
Outlook for Supply
Oil
Resources and Reserves
Brazil is the world’s 15th-largest oil producer, with proven reserves of
11.2 billion barrels (Oil and Gas Journal, 2005). 6 Oil reserves increased nearly
eightfold from 1980 to 2005. Brazil has made impressive technological
advances in deep-water exploration and production, with several recent
discoveries of large fields containing over one billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Deep-water and ultra-deep-water exploration have yielded significant
discoveries (Figure 16.7).
There are still vast unexplored areas, which have high potential for new
discoveries. So far, drilling concessions have been offered for less than 7% of
the promising areas. The offshore basins of Espirito Santo, Campos and Santos,
where large discoveries have been made, have been the main focus of interest.
6. Petrobras reported reserves of 12.3 billion barrels in December 2005.
464 World Energy Outlook 2006 - FOCUS ON KEY TOPICS